UBS shares up as Q3 profits double consensus, 2025 buybacks on horizon
Investing.com -- Shares of UBS (SIX:UBSG ) (NYSE:UBS ) rose on Wednesday after it posted a strong Q3 performance, with net profits nearly doubling consensus estimates, driven by a 7% increase in revenue and tight cost control.
At 4:25 am (0825 GMT), UBS was trading 3.1% higher at CHF 29.36.
The Global Wealth Management (GWM) unit’s invested assets were up 3%, with the Non-Core and Legacy (NCL) unit showing a faster-than-expected reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) by $5 billion, now standing at $45 billion.
“Momentum is continuing into Q4 but UBS points to macro and election uncertainty. The CET 1 ratio came in lower than expected largely due to a timing effect (in line without this) which is also partially offset by a reduced impact from B4 in 2025,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note.
UBS guided a swifter run-off profile for these assets, projecting a reduction to $27 billion by 2026, marking 5% of the group’s RWAs, a drop from previous estimates.
UBS’s CET1 ratio was slightly below target at 14.3% due to an accelerated amortization of regulatory adjustments.
However, excluding this adjustment, the CET1 ratio aligns with the 14.9% consensus. UBS's accelerated amortization impacted the CET1 ratio by 65 basis points, but the copany confirmed plans to resume buybacks in 2025 and expects returns to exceed pre-acquisition levels by 2026.
Each of UBS’s major business units contributed to the strong quarter, with underlying pre-provision profit (excluding litigation) beating consensus by 14%.
In Global Wealth Management, higher invested assets and effective operating leverage led to a 13% outperformance, while Personal and Corporate Banking posted a 4% increase in underlying profit.
The Investment Bank was much ahead of expectations, surpassing street estimates by 55%, with Equities revenue up 33% year-over-year and FICC up 26% over the same period.
Asset Management also exceeded expectations, supported by a $72 million net gain from disposals despite a slight increase in costs.
In Q4, UBS expects a mid-single-digit decline in net interest income within GWM and a low-single-digit decrease in Personal and Corporate Banking.
Despite these anticipated declines, analysts note that UBS’s performance in Q3 was buoyed by specific strength in its core divisions.
Its GWM recorded a 5% rise in invested assets to $4.259 trillion, with net inflows of $24.7 billion, and fee-generating assets up by 5% sequentially.
The Investment Bank also saw growth in Advisory (up 13% year-over-year), with particular strength in the APAC region.
While costs rose slightly in Q3, UBS’s headcount decreased by 1% at the group level, with a 2% drop in GWM advisors. The bank's total tangible net asset value (TNAV) per share was up 4% from consensus, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase and a 5% sequential increase.
UBS's Q3 results show a resilient balance of growth across divisions and steady cost discipline, positioning the firm favorably for upcoming quarters and setting a clear path toward its targeted returns in 2026.
“While UBS’ ambition to continue buybacks in 2025 and 2026 (to exceed pre-acquisition levels) remains, capital returns “beyond 2025 will be subject to the assessment of any proposed new capital requirements,” said analysts at BofA Securities in a note.
Source: Investing.com
