Titan Q4 Preview: Profit, revenue seen rising in high double-digits

The company has already reported 12% growth in its net sales, led by 18% growth in standalone jewellery business and 24% growth in emerging business segment.

Here's what to expect from :

Incred Equities

The growth in new buyers and same-store sales growth led the growth in the jewellery division. Both studded and plain gold are expected to grow at a similar pace. We estimate EBITDA/PAT growth of 18.6%/15.7% year-on-year, respectively.

Kotak Equities

We model 17% year-on-year growth in standalone jewelry sales (excluding sale of gold bullion; versus 23% growth in 3Q), partly impacted by a sudden rally in gold prices in March 2024, 14.4% growth in watches division and 2.4% decline in eyewear.

We expect standalone jewelry EBIT margin of 12.8%. We estimate a 40 bps year-on-year decline in jewelry EBIT margin (despite cut in franchise commissions) on account of rationalization of gold rate mark-up, aggressive exchange offers and marginal decline in studded share.

We note that Tanishq took some price corrective actions in Solitaires, but its contribution to the top-line is low and hence impact on overall margin is limited. Titan's FY24 jewelry EBIT margin guidance band is 12-13%. We estimate 9.9% EBIT margin for watches, and 7.2% EBIT margin for eyewear in 4QFY24.

Nuvama

For Titan, we build in a 15% growth in the Jewellery segment (ex bullion). This is a moderation from the 23% growth clocked in Q3FY24 as there has been some impact on demand due to the spike in gold prices in March. We build in 15% year-on-year growth in Watches and Wearables (Traction in wearables sustaining) and flat growth Eyewear segment.

For Jewellery segment margins, we build in a 12.4% margin, down 80 bps year-on-year, given the focus on market share gains and it is also inline with the guidance of 12-13% for FY24. Overall our standalone revenues come to Rs 10990 crire, up 13% year-on-year with EBITDA Margins at 10.7% and EBITDA at Rs 11800 crore, up 13% year-on-year.

Motilal Oswal

We expect revenue growth of 17.9% year-on-year. We anticipate the jewelry segment to grow by 18.5%, with a five-year revenue CAGR of 21.4%. GP margin is expected to decrease 70 bp year-on-year, while EBITDA margins remain flat year-on-year. Outlook on international business expansion is a key monitorable.

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