Maruti Suzuki Q4 Preview: PAT may rise 52% YoY on higher sales, strong volumes

Maruti Suzuki Q4 earnings project a 52% YoY PAT increase, 20% revenue growth, and improved EBITDA margins. Strong performance from SUV segment and exports drive volume growth.

Continuing the trend of the last few quarters, leading automaker is expected to post robust numbers for the March quarter, led by higher sales and strong volume growth.

Revenue from operations during the March quarter is seen rising around 20% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of four brokerages.

Net profit, meanwhile, is likely to surge 52% year-on-year, based on the average figure of four analysts.

EBITDA margins likely to improve 300 bps year-on-year on price hikes, richer product mix, favorable forex and RM tailwind over the last year.

The company had already reported volume growth of 13% year-on-year, led by higher sales of the SUV segment (up 71.5% year-on-year) and exports (up 21% year-on-year).

Here's what to expect from Maruti Suzuki's Q4:

Nuvama

Revenue growth year-on-year to be supported by robust volume growth and increase in realizations. EBITDA margin to expand on better net pricing and scale. Key thing to watch out for is demand outlook, especially for rural/ entry level segments.

Motilal Oswal

Volume growth of 13% year-on-year was driven by visible traction in UVs (71% YoY growth) even as entry-level models declined 28% year-on-year. EBITDA margin likely to expand 110 bps quarter-on-quarter to 12.8%, due to stable RM costs, improved mix and operating leverage benefit.

We have raised FY25E EPS by 9% to account for higher volumes and better mix

Kotak Equities

We expect revenues to increase by 20% year-on-year led by 13% year-on-year increase in volumes and 6% year-on-year increase in ASPs due to price increases and a richer product mix (higher mix of SUV segment) in 4QFY24

We expect EBITDA margin to improve by 170 bps quarter-on-quarter to 13.5% led by operating leverage benefit, commodity tailwinds, favorable FX and lower discounts in 4QFY24.

Axis Securities

We expect total revenue to increase by ~20.4% YoY due to higher overall unit sales, better product mix- HIgher absolute nos of SUV and export sales. EBITDA to outpace the topline growth YoY led by richer product mix (higher share of SUV), price hikes taken during the period and RM cost tailwinds.

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