Macquarie forecasts US crude stockpile rise

Investing.com -- Macquarie on Monday projected an increase in US crude inventories for the week ending January 3, estimating a build of 6.5 million barrels (MM BBL).

This forecast comes in lower than their initial expectation of a 7.4 MM BBL increase but contrasts with the 1.2 MM BBL draw reported for the week ending December 27.

The anticipated change in crude balances includes a reduction in crude runs by refineries, estimated at 0.3 million barrels per day (MBD).

Net imports are expected to show a modest rise due to a decrease in exports by 0.8 MBD and a smaller decline in imports by 0.6 MBD. The timing of cargo arrivals could lead to potential fluctuations in this week's crude balance. Additionally, year-end timing effects may introduce further volatility into the weekly statistics.

Macquarie's analysis also points to a recovery in implied domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, projecting an increase of 0.6 MBD after a weaker showing in the previous week.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is also expected to see a minor uptick, with inventories predicted to grow by 0.2 MM BBL over the week.

In terms of refined products, Macquarie forecasts a substantial build in gasoline inventories of 6.8 MM BBL, along with a rise in distillate stocks of 3.2 MM BBL, and a slight increase in jet fuel of 0.1 MM BBL.

Implied demand for these products is modeled at approximately 13.2 MBD for the week, taking into account ongoing holiday and seasonal effects.

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Source: Investing.com