Market confuses with record FII long-short ratio surge, hinting at shifting dynamics post-election. Chandan Taparia notes unusual stability despite ratio near 5, credits India's growing equity culture for market surge.
The market current rally has enough elements to confuse even veteran traders. The , now beyond all traditional parameters, is probably the most puzzling of the lot.Until recently, the FII long-short ratio - a measure of the number of as against - was more predictable. The markets typically corrected when the ratio was near 3 or approaching that threshold. However, this time, the ratio jumped from 2.03 straight to 4.5, far exceeding the overbought zone.
Whether this signals a new dynamic or serves as a powerful cautionary message remains to be seen.
"Generally, when the ratio used to touch around 3, there used to be a correction, but the major reason for the ratio continuing to reach near 5 and stabilising with no sign of correction is the ," said Rajesh Palvia, head-technicals and derivatives, Axis Securities. "Also, if you look at , an indicator of market volatility, which did make a high of almost 32 on the election result day, has gradually come down and touched the monthly low zone of 12-13, indicating less apprehension with the current rally."
At the end of May, declined to as low as 0.15. Since then, there has been a sharp rally, with the rising 11% since the election results on June 4. Out of the 19 trading sessions post-election results, the Nifty fell just five times, and even then, only marginally.
"FIIs' long-short ratio was working as a key indicator in the past 2-3 years; and 5-6 times, the index bottomed out with the bottom formation of long-short ratio and topped out on the reverse," said Chandan Taparia, technical analyst, . "But in the recent past, the ratio headed to 5, and the index is still holding its gains with momentum." Taparia feels India's emerging also has a role to play in sending equity gauges higher across the market-cap spectrum.
Source: Stocks-Markets-Economic Times