JPMorgan's 2025 outlook for the S&P 500 and US dollar

Investing.com -- In its year-ahead outlook note released Tuesday, JPMorgan said it anticipates a resilient U.S. economy in 2025, underpinned by a business-friendly policy shift and ongoing AI-driven investments.

"[The] US will remain the global growth engine with still healthy labor market, strong credit fundamentals, ample liquidity in the system, and broadening of AI-related capital spending," analysts noted.

The firm projects the S&P 500 to climb to 6,500 by year-end 2025, reflecting an approximate 9% upside from current levels. Earnings per share for the index are forecasted to reach $270, translating to a healthy 10% annual growth.

JPMorgan highlights the broadening of earnings across sectors, with all 11 S&P sectors expected to post positive growth next year, compared to mixed performance in 2024.

On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates by 100 basis points, reaching 3.75% by September 2025. However, JPMorgan flags that the timing and scope of policy actions, including deregulation and trade measures, introduce significant uncertainties to the outlook.

Turning to the dollar, JPMorgan remains bullish, predicting the EUR/USD exchange rate to break parity at 0.99 in the first quarter of 2025, citing U.S. exceptionalism and a supportive policy backdrop.

"Our working assumption is that a second Trump administration would bring higher China tariffs, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. If so, the US economy should grow 2.2% in 2025, outperforming other DM economies for the third year in a row and reinforcing USD upside," the investment bank explains.

The firm also points to risks, including potential inflationary pressures from trade policies and uncertainty over immigration and regulatory reforms under the new U.S. administration.

Despite these challenges, JPMorgan concludes: "We are positive on U.S. equities, but expect greater dispersion driven by differential earnings growth and investor positioning."

Source: Investing.com