IndiGo Q4 Preview: PAT may double YoY on robust demand; healthy revenue growth likely

Analysts expect EBITDAR to grow 69% year-on-year to Rs 5,000 crore amid strong demand and weakening of smaller airline players.

In the preceding third quarter, IndiGo's profit zoomed 111% to Rs 2,998 crore, while revenue from operations increased 30% year-on-year to Rs 19,452 crore.

Here's what analysts expect from IndiGo's Q4:

Nuvama

Nuvama expects yields to remain flat at Rs 5 as supply constraints persist (70+ aircrafts remain grounded). However, PLFs are likely to remain high at 86% while PAX traffic will grow to 27.6 million.

Motilal Oswal

The brokerage expects RPK at 30 billion (16% year-on-year), PLF at 87.5% (up from 85.8% in 3QFY24) and ASK of 34 billion (up 12% year-on-year), with seasonality coming into play in 4QFY24.

According to its database, the average fare was down 17% on one-month forward bookings, while the same was down 23% on 15-day forward bookings.

Outlook on P&W engine-fitted aircraft (being grounded in FY25) is a key monitorable. Further, the commentary on impending competition would be keenly eyed.

International expansion is the focus area for the management with addition of new networks and code share agreements.

Kotak Equities

The brokerage expects 16% year-on-year change in passenger count in the quarter, largely driven by higher load factor at 87%. It sees RASK less CASK (excludes other income and forex) at Rs 0.12 per ASK, against Rs 0.07 per ASK in 4QFY23. The difference would have been higher if not for higher damp lease cost, built in a healthy pricing environment.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)