How Nifty has performed one week after Lok Sabha elections since 1999

As India awaits Lok Sabha election results, forecasts suggest a likely win for the Modi-led NDA alliance. Analysts anticipate market reactions, citing historical data. Post-poll, equities could experience short-term fluctuations, but tend to rebound in the medium to long term.

As anxiously awaits the Lok Sabha election , most pollsters predict a comfortable victory for the Modi-led alliance.

If the results align with the exit polls, analysts anticipate continuity, macroeconomic stability, and the potential for further structural reforms, all of which could positively influence Indian markets. On the flip side, any unexpected results could trigger knee-jerk reactions in the near term. However, most experts believe that any sharp weakness in equities could present buying opportunities.

"Any unexpected outcome will likely be perceived negatively at least at first, due to political instability and possible policy paralysis weighing on business sentiment and impacting confidence. This could trigger knee-jerk reactions in financial markets in the near term, with equity valuations possibly testing pre-NDA levels," said .

Historically, any underperformance triggered by election results tends to reverse in the medium to long term as markets and businesses adapt to new policies. Here is the 's post-general since 1999:

1999
After the NDA formed the government, Nifty surged 8.6% within a week, but delivered negative 1% returns one month post-election. Over the longer term, it gained 17.4% in three months, 6% in six months, and then dropped by 5.6% after a year.

2004
When the Congress-led formed the government, Nifty rose 1.8% within a week but fell by 4.1% one month post-election. It then increased by 2.3% in three months, 21.2% in six months, and 28.7% after one year.

2009
The 2009 elections saw the Congress-led UPA again forming the government, with Nifty surging 15.4% in a week, 23.3% in a month, 25.5% in three months, 39% in six months, and 40.3% after one year.

2014
When the BJP-led NDA took power, Nifty rose 3.5% within a week, 6.4% in a month, 10.5% in three months, 19.3% in six months, and 17.8% after a year.

2019
The BJP-led NDA retained power, with Nifty rising 1.8% in a week and delivering 0.1% returns in a month. However, it fell by 7.1% in three months, rose by 2.4% in six months, and declined by 21.9% after one year.
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Source: Stocks-Markets-Economic Times

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