Fed: How high is the bar for another 50?

Investing.com -- The possibility of another 50 basis point (bp) rate cut from the Federal Reserve is gaining traction, despite initial indications that the September cut would be a one-off, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.

The firm said it has been scrutinizing recent Fed communications to understand the conditions under which another large rate reduction could occur.

While the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting framed the 50bp cut as a singular event, Fed officials have since sounded more open to the possibility of another substantial cut, they note.

Deutsche Bank said, "Governor Waller indicated that he could support additional front loading if the labor market weakened further or inflation continued to surprise to the downside."

They added that Fed Chair Jerome Powell had initially suggested that the larger cut was not part of a rushed move toward a neutral policy rate.

"The dot plot showed that only 1 out of 19 officials expected another 50bp reduction this year," notes Deutsche Bank.

However, they state that recent Fedspeak, including comments from more hawkish officials like Atlanta's Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, has indicated growing openness to another significant reduction if data warrants it.

The key data that could trigger a second 50bp cut lies in the labor market. Deutsche Bank highlights that if the unemployment rate trends higher than the median forecast of 4.4% and payroll growth remains weak, the Fed may be inclined to cut rates again.

"The bar to another 50bp reduction in November may not be particularly high," the analysts argue, especially given softer consumer confidence and labor market sentiment.

With the October employment report falling within the Fed's communications blackout period, Deutsche Bank suggests that any further labor market softening could push the Fed toward another aggressive rate cut.

Source: Investing.com