Fed easing cycle may boost home improvement chains - Oppenheimer

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve's signal that it has begun a new policy easing cycle could provide a boost to home improvement retail chains in the "intermediate to longer term," according to analysts at Oppenheimer.

Last week, the US central bank rolled out a large 50-basis point interest rate cut and suggested that more reductions could come before the end of the year.

In a note to clients, the analysts upgraded their rating of DIY group Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW ) to "Outperform" from "Perform" in particular, arguing that the lower interest rate environment will likely spur homeowners to take on more expensive projects. A recent period of elevated borrowing costs, which saw rates sitting at a more than two-decade high for over a year, has weighed on housing demand.

"Prospects for demand trends within home improvement retail and at leading operators to gradually solidify and return to normalized expansion algorithms as lower lending rates spur improved housing activity and likely support ongoing home price appreciation and encourage shoppers to undertake larger ticket purchases," the Oppenheimer analysts wrote.

Lowe's Chief Executive Marvin Ellison warned in August that the macroeconomic backdrop for homeowners remains "challenging." The company subsequently slashed its 2024 financial forecast, citing anticipated weakness in DIY sales.

Total full-year sales are now seen at $82.7 billion to $83.2 billion, down from Lowe's previous forecast of $84 to $85 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be between $11.70 and $11.90, lower than the earlier guidance of $12.00 to $12.30.

The revised outlook was below analyst expectations, with the consensus estimate for yearly EPS at $12.14 and revenue at $84.16 billion.

However, the Oppenheimer analysts said that Lowe's, as well as rival Home Depot , are now "better-positioned."

"An underlying healthy, albeit more subdued housing backdrop in the US appears to be poised to rebound, potentially meaningfully, as rates normalize, likely serving as an incremental, nearer-term driver for Home Depot (NYSE:HD ) and Lowe’s," the analysts said.

Source: Investing.com