Barclays raises Victoria's Secret rating to "equal weight," sees potential for upside

Barclays in a note dated Wednesday upgraded Victoria’s Secret & Co. to “equal weight” from “underweight”, reflecting a more balanced view of the stock’s risk and reward profile.

The upgrade comes as the company shows signs of stabilizing after years of market share losses, and Barclays analysts believe the worst may now be behind it.

One of the reasons for this upgrade is the recent leadership change at Victoria’s Secret. Hillary Super, who was appointed CEO in September 2024, brings nearly three decades of retail experience to the table.

Barclays views her as instrumental in guiding the brand back to its core strengths, particularly in the intimates and apparel categories.

Her deep knowledge of the sector and her focus on understanding Victoria’s Secret’s core consumer are seen as critical assets that will help the company execute its turnaround plan.

Though meaningful changes may not fully materialize until 2025, Super’s leadership is already viewed as a positive shift for the brand.

Barclays also noted that Victoria’s Secret has made strides in improving its inventory management, which is expected to boost profitability in the coming quarters.

The company has posted three consecutive quarters of positive sales-to-inventory growth, signaling better alignment between supply and demand.

This has led to expectations of higher gross margins as fresh, new product hits stores and aged inventory is cleared.

As per Barclays, these improvements in inventory efficiency could be a significant factor in the company's ability to recover and regain market strength.

Additionally, the brokerage flagged Victoria’s Secret’s return to its core brand identity as a key component of its recovery.

The company has been re-engaging its customer base through product innovation while staying true to the brand’s heritage in intimates.

New product launches, such as the Victoria’s Secret Dream Bra and VSX Sport line, have been met with a positive consumer response.

This return to brand fundamentals, coupled with fresh marketing initiatives like the relaunch of the iconic Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show, is starting to resonate with customers.

Barclays analysts also pointed to Victoria’s Secret’s near-term earnings expectations as a reason for the upgrade.

“We see 2H24 consensus EPS as sufficiently low as we note the raising of the full-year guidance on their 2Q24 earnings call,” the analysts said. If the company meets or exceeds these conservative benchmarks, it could outperform current market expectations.

Due to this, Barclays has raised its price target for Victoria’s Secret to $25 from $23, reflecting a 6.1% potential upside from the current price of $23.57 as of September 16.

While the stock has shown signs of stabilization, Barclays remains cautious, noting that further evidence of a sustained recovery will be needed before they consider a more bullish stance.

In particular, the brokerage is looking for improvements in market share, ongoing sales growth, and the successful execution of new product strategies before recommending more aggressive accumulation of shares​

Source: Investing.com