Atlassian lifted to Outperform at Raymond James

Investing.com -- Raymond James upgraded Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM ) from Market Perform to Outperform on Monday, citing potential upside amidst the company's ongoing cloud transition.

Despite Atlassian's significant decline in stock price — down nearly 20% in the past six months and 60% over the past three years — Raymond James sees opportunity ahead.

The analysts noted that Atlassian's cloud growth has been a key concern for investors.

Originally projected to grow by 50% during FY23 and FY24, the company missed these targets, reporting just 38% cloud growth in FY23 and guiding for 29% in FY24.

The downgrade in expectations disappointed investors, leading to the stock's underperformance. However, Raymond James now believes that cloud growth could exceed guidance in FY25.

For FY25, Atlassian's cloud growth guidance stands at 23%, but Raymond James sees potential for growth in the mid-to-high 20% range due to factors like 120% net revenue retention (NRR), price increases, and migration tailwinds from data centers.

The analysts also pointed to a stabilization in developer seats—a critical metric for Atlassian—which had been declining but remained flat in the most recent quarter. This, combined with expected improvements in Atlassian's go-to-market organization, presents a favorable setup for growth.

The "risk/reward scenarios are favorable," said Raymond James, which is maintaining its FY25 revenue and EPS estimates of $5.06 billion and $3.09, respectively, and raised its price target to $200 based on 8.5x EV/Sales multiple on FY26 revenue estimates.

The analysts see a path for Atlassian to achieve 30%+ cloud growth over the next few years, which could drive the stock price higher. In a best-case scenario, they see potential for the stock to reach $300, while a bear case could see the stock fall to $125. The firm's price target on the stock is $200 a share.

Source: Investing.com