Asian stocks fluctuate as traders weigh Trump win

Australian bonds declined ahead of the release of the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting. The dollar rose against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Contracts for US equities slipped during Asian hours, despite Wall Street edging mildly higher Monday amid a rally in tech megacaps.

reported the is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to ensure he’s on November ballots. Elsewhere, a divided Supreme Court ruled that Trump has some immunity from criminal charges for trying to reverse the 2020 election results, all but ensuring that a trial won’t happen before the November election.

Investors are now looking toward the as an even bigger potential given that it currently appears Trump’s chances of retaking the White House have meaningfully improved, according to Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.

“During last week’s presidential debate, neither candidate proposed policies that would reduce the country’s fiscal deficit, which is growing unsustainable,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Meanwhile, the US political landscape is highly uncertain as members of the media and various Democrats call for Biden to step down from the race for the White House following his weak debate performance.”

Bloomberg

In China, pessimism about the domestic economy has sparked a surge in demand for government bonds. The central bank said it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers, a sign it may be contemplating selling securities to cool down the rally.

Meanwhile, the prospect of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike coming later this month increased after an index showed confidence among the nation’s large manufacturers rose from three months earlier.

In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that there is not sufficient evidence that inflation threats have passed, feeding expectations that officials will take a break from cutting interest rates this month. The euro was little changed after French election results suggested there’s a smaller probability of extreme policies coming from the far-right.

Bloomberg

Following last week’s presidential debate that has shifted the probabilities of Trump winning over Biden, Morgan Stanley strategists Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra are re-evaluating their assumptions going into the elections.

“The key issue is the market now has to contend with rising probabilities of changes in immigration and tariff policies in an economy where growth has already been cooling, making the market more likely to price more rate cuts,” they wrote. “On the other hand, higher prospects of a Republican sweep, amid growing focus on deficits, could put upward pressure on long-end term premiums.

While there’s a common debate about whether the timing of the election impacts the Federal Reserve’s policy choices, history shows the US central bank has not refrained from taking action during those years, according to Komson Silapachai at Sage Advisory.

In commodities, oil traded near a two-month high as traders took stock of mounting geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East as well as a hurricane in the Caribbean. Elsewhere, gold held onto a small gain.