AAII Sentiment Survey shows pessimism is on the way down

Investing.com -- The latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey revealed a notable drop in investor pessimism, with bearish sentiment hitting its lowest level since December 2023.

The AAII revealed that bearish sentiment, which reflects expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 20.6%.

This is significantly below the historical average of 31.0% and marks the eighth time in nine weeks that bearish sentiment has been low, according to AAII.

At the same time, optimism is on the rise. Bullish sentiment, which reflects expectations that stock prices will increase over the next six months, climbed by 3.6 percentage points to 49.0%, well above its historical average of 37.5%. This is the 48th time in 49 weeks that bullish sentiment has exceeded its average.

Additionally, neutral sentiment, which reflects expectations for little change in stock prices, rose by 3.2 percentage points to 30.4%. However, it remains slightly below its historical average of 31.5% for the 14th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (the difference between bullish and bearish sentiment) widened, increasing by 10.3 percentage points to 28.5%. This figure is said to remain well above its historical average of 6.5%, a trend seen in 22 of the last 23 weeks.

The AAII said investors are primarily focused on the economy and inflation, with 33.0% of survey respondents citing these factors as the most influential on their six-month outlook for stocks.

They added that other significant influences include monetary policy and interest rates (23.5%), corporate earnings (15.7%), and valuations (13.0%).

The survey results indicate growing optimism in the market as investor sentiment shifts away from bearish expectations

Source: Investing.com