'Trump trades' surge as Trump claims victory

(Reuters) -The dollar surged and U.S. stock futures hit record highs as investors bet on lower taxes and higher interest rates as Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the U.S. presidential election after leading vote counts in crucial swing states.

Fox News also projected Trump to win the presidency.

MARKET REACTION AT 0745 GMT

* S&P 500 e-mini futures rose 2%

* The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to a four-month high of 4.47%

* The U.S. dollar index was up 1.6%

* Bitcoin hit a record high of $75,060

COMMENTS

KEN PENG, HEAD OF ASIA INVESTMENT STRATEGY, CITI WEALTH, HONG KONG

"A lot of this is based on investors' view that Trump would cut taxes or at least keep tax rates low. Now that it's likely to be looking like a red sweep - additional cuts are possible.

"Deregulation is another major positive for the economy and markets, particularly for the financial, energy and tech sectors. The negatives are tariffs. That's going to be negative for global growth, you know, particularly in China, Asia (and)Europe... you see inflation expectations rise.

"I think the market is currently still just enjoying the positive aspects of a red sweep, but I think as time passes, you are likely to see the risks ... get priced in."

NAKA MATSUZAWA, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST, NOMURA, TOKYO:

"I think the market was not yet ready for a 'red sweep'... if the 'red sweep' materialises, 10-year yields for U.S. Treasuries could go up to as high as 4.50% and above. Dollar/yen could go over 155. They're kind of half pricing in that level right now.

"If Trump can pass tax and spending bills first, then he doesn't have to rush for the hardline policies against China, which come rather later. If Congress is controlled by Republicans Trump can prioritise economic stimulus measures."

MATTHEW RYAN, HEAD OF MARKET STRATEGY, EBURY, LONDON:

"Not only are markets positioning themselves for a comfortable Trump victory in the electoral college, but the prospect of a Republican-controlled Congress, which is key in determining the ability of the incoming president to force policy changes through the U.S. government."

RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE:

"With Trump, market volatility is likely to pick up, so trading-wise, it does open up opportunities. The volatility comes from uncertainty surrounding how he intends to follow through on some of his campaign promises.

"Right now the markets are focusing narrowly on the prospect of tariffs, because it is the easiest lever to pull directly under a presidential executive order, but we've seen between 2016 and 2020 other levers that can be pulled to contain China.

"From this perspective, I think a foreign investor is likely to position more defensively towards China-focused risk."

WONG KOK HOONG, HEAD OF EQUITY SALES TRADING, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE

"Carnage in HK/China hasn't really materialised because traders and investors are still awaiting any possible (stimulus) announcements.

"As for the next four years in general, for a start we may need to download Truth Social app."

GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR NATIXIS, HONG KONG:

"As Trump's policies in trade tariffs and tax cuts may lead to higher inflationary pressure and a wider fiscal deficit, the Fed may be less dovish than before.

"Therefore, the yuan can face higher pressure."

BEN EMONS, FOUNDER OF FEDWATCH ADVISORS, WASHINGTON:

"Markets are growing confident that the election result will be called and that a 'red sweep' of Congress is possible.

"U.S. Treasury yields are rising sharply in anticipation that a Republican Congress will pass sweeping tax reform and tax cuts to create conditions for a favorable investment climate in the United States.

"With uncertainty seen as negligible, there is a relief rally in liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto and economy-sensitive assets like small caps."

HOMIN LEE, SENIOR MACRO STRATEGIST, LOMBARD ODIER, SINGAPORE:

"If Trump wins, we have to accept a period of volatility for sure, because it's going to prove quite disruptive, especially for trade policy and immigration policy, potentially even fiscal policy, if Republicans end up sweeping both chambers of Congress as well."

MATT ORTON, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, RAYMOND JAMES INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, ST. PETERSBURG, FL.:

"I expected yields to move higher, but I am a little bit surprised just to the extent.



"I start to worry when yields cross the 4.50% mark. If we don't reverse that upward trend, I would be more reticent to add too much more risk until we hear from the Fed or get a little bit more guidance with respect to where terminal rates might lie.

"Yields are rising and it's more the association of increased fiscal spending, significantly higher deficits under a Trump versus a Harris administration."

Source: Investing.com