Long-end US bond yields, European shares rise with dollar; bitcoin above $90K

By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee

LONDON (Reuters) -Longer-dated U.S. bond yields rose alongside the dollar on Thursday as investors bet that President-elect Donald Trump's policies would fuel inflation and keep rates higher for longer, while European stocks rose on hopes of a better growth outlook.

Bitcoin jumped back above $90,000, having surpassed that level in the previous session, turbocharged by Trump's return to the White House and the view that his administration will be a boon for cryptocurrencies.

The world's largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin last traded 2.3% higher at $90,654, having already soared more than 30% in the last two weeks.

In the broader market, traders responded to a U.S. inflation print that was in line with expectations by adding to bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, though the monetary policy outlook for 2025 and beyond was clouded by Trump's return to office.

Trump's plan for lower taxes and higher tariffs are expected to spur inflation and reduce the Fed's scope to ease interest rates, buoying the dollar.

Edison Research also projected on Wednesday that the Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when the President-elect takes office in January, which would enable Trump to pursue his agenda largely unhindered.

Uncertainty over potentially larger U.S. deficits and stickier inflation was reflected in longer-dated U.S. bond yields, which pushed higher on Thursday. [US/]

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.483%, according to LSEG data, its highest since July 1.

The 30-year yield hovered near a five-month peak and last stood at 4.6397%.

"Even though we're not optimistic Trump's policies will be a big boost to growth, they will increase indebtedness and boost inflation and that could change the Fed's plans," said Nordea chief analyst Jan von Gerich said.

On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, ticked up as much as 3 basis points (bps) to 4.324%.

Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 bps rate cut from the Fed next month, up from about 59% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, expectations of Fed cuts next year have been pared back following Trump's election victory.

The dollar, meanwhile, followed longer-dated Treasury yields higher, ignoring the rising bets of a Fed cut in December which would typically be negative for the currency.

The greenback pushed the euro to a one-year low of $1.0534 and broke above the 156 yen level.

The dollar index peaked at a one-year high of 106.77.

The Australian dollar fell 0.33% to $0.6464, further pressured by a downside surprise on domestic employment.

SHARES MIXED

European shares were mostly higher in early trade, contrasting with declines in Asia.

The Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.6%, while the broader STOXX 600 was up 0.2% after a number of earnings reports, including from Europe's largest telecoms group Deutsche Telekom (OTC:DTEGY ) and tech giant ASML (AS:ASML ) .

In contrast, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.7%.

That came on the back of a fall in Chinese stocks as they struggled to make headway. The mainland CSI300 blue-chip index fell 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell a similar amount.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slid 2%.

Trump nominated China hardliner Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, signalling that a more hawkish stance towards Beijing could extend beyond tariffs.

"The Trump administration is taking shape and the names that are popping up are not doing anything to moderate expectations on what he'll deliver," said Nordea's von Gerich.

Separately, investors have been left unimpressed by Beijing's latest support measures to shore up China's ailing economy, after the finance ministry unveiled tax incentives on home and land transactions on Wednesday.

China's property market is grappling with a prolonged downturn since 2021 and remains a major drag on the world's second-largest economy.

"If you're considering buying a house or in the market for one, it helps, certainly. But it's not going to change the situation itself," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"It's not going to galvanise a lot of people to start (buying) homes. The inventory overhang is still there."

In line with the declines across Asia, Japan's Nikkei erased early gains to last trade 0.5% lower.



Elsewhere, oil prices were little changed. Brent crude futures were at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures traded at $68.43. [O/R]

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,555.99 an ounce. [GOL/]

Source: Investing.com