Go long USD/CNY ahead of Trump's inauguration - UBS

Donald Trump’s inauguration is right around the corner, and UBS has advised its clients to go long the USD/CNY pair to hedge policy risks before the big day.

In a light data week, Trump’s inauguration will take center stage next week, according to analysts at UBS, in a note dated Jan. 16.

“While we don’t know what his first moves will be, we doubt it will be to levy big tariffs on day one. But that doesn’t mean markets won’t stop focusing on it. FX markets are not priced for large tariffs. Big tariff moves could still weaken the CNY more meaningfully, hurting pro-growth currencies such as the EUR,” the Swiss bank said.

Given the risks, volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead. Option volatility has already risen, though this is more due to diverging economic growth expectations between the US and the rest of the world and to country- specific issues like those in the UK and Canada. This means any market-negative developments should still lead to higher actual and implied volatility.

USD/CNY has reached new highs of late, trading at the upper limit of the fixing range, the Swiss bank said. 

“We expect the yuan to face increased pressure once Trump firms up his tariff plans targeting China, which may lead the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to permit further depreciation of the currency,” UBS added.

A weaker CNY against the dollar could help mitigate some of the negative impacts of any tariff hikes. Additionally, vulnerable domestic economic fundamentals are likely to weigh on yuan sentiment, contributing to higher FX demand and investment outflows. 

“Overall, we like to be long USDCNH , targeting a move toward 7.50 in the coming which could also provide positive carry of 2.1% p.a. We believe a stop-loss of 7.20 is prudent,” UBS said.

At 09:10 ET (14:10 GMT), USD/CNY traded marginally lower at 7.3289.

 

Source: Investing.com