Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls; sterling slips again
The US dollar edged higher Friday, holding on to recent gains ahead of the release of the highly influential monthly jobs report, while sterling continued to retreat.
At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 109.040, on course for a weekly gain of 0.3%.
This would be its sixth consecutive weekly gain, its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023. Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls
The dollar traded near its strongest levels since November 2022, holding on to recent gains as the US returned from a holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter.
The focus was squarely on nonfarm payrolls data for December, due later in the session, as traders look for more cues on the US economy and the future path of interest rates.
The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policy makers remain concerned over the potential for inflation to flare up again, especially given the likely impact of the expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump.
US nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show the economy added 154,000 jobs in December on top of the 227,000 in November, with unemployment holding at 4.2%.
Anything stronger would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, boosting the dollar.
“We think the balance of risks is tilted to the upside for the dollar today, as robust jobs figures could prompt markets to price out a March cut and potentially push the first fully-priced move beyond June,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“We would still argue that with inflation concerns back on the rise – although the Fedspeak has been quite heterogeneous on that topic – next Wednesday’s CPI report could have deeper market ramifications.” Sterling set for hefty weekly loss
In Europe, EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0303, helped by data showing that French industrial production rose 0.2% on the month in November, an improvement from the prior month’s drop of 0.3% and above the fall of 0.1% expected.
That said, the euro remains weak, with the European Central Bank widely expected to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in 2025, around double the cuts expected by the US central bank, with the regional economy still very weak.
“Markets are pricing a good deal of negatives into the euro at this stage, and perhaps the euro may be penalised less than other G10 currencies should US payrolls come in strong today,” ING added.
GBP/USD traded 0.2% lower to 1.2285, with sterling on course to lose 1% this week after earlier falling to a 14-month low following a selloff in UK government bonds amid concern about British finances.
“We expect higher yields to act as an additional headwind to growth via household remortgaging and weaker investment,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, in a note.
“The rise in gilt yields reinforces our view that UK growth will disappoint in 2025, with our 0.9% real GDP growth forecast notably below consensus (1.4%), the BoE (1.5%) and the OBR (2%).” Yuan lacks support
In Asia, USD/CNY rose 0.3% to 7.3513, with the Chinese currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December, released earlier in the week.
The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China.
USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 157.85, with the Japanese currency helped by the release of stronger-than-expected household spending data earlier Friday.
This followed on from a bigger-than-expected increase in wage growth on Thursday, and has sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Source: Investing.com
