Dollar on back foot ahead of CPI; sterling slips
The U.S. dollar steadied Wednesday, after overnight weakness, ahead of the release of the July consumer price index, while sterling weakened after benign inflation data.
At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, edged lower to 102.277, after slumping 0.5% overnight. Dollar on back foot ahead of CPI release
The U.S. currency retreated Tuesday after the July producer price index came in softer than expected for July, resulting in traders shifting bets slightly towards a 50 basis point cut in September.
The PPI reading ramped up hopes that a consumer price index inflation reading, which is due later on Wednesday, is also expected to show inflation remained benign in July, providing the Federal Reserve with more headroom to begin trimming rates.
“We have been bearish on the dollar of late and generally optimistic on sentiment stabilising, and a benign US CPI print, in our view, could clear the path for more risk-on/dollar-off trading into the core PCE release on 30 August and jobs figures on 6 September,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The Fed at the end of July kept the policy rate in the same 5.25%-5.50% range it has been for more than a year, but signaled that a rate cut could come as soon as September if inflation continued to cool. Sterling slips after UK inflation release
In Europe, GBP/USD traded 0.2% lower at 1.2837 after data showed that British consumer price inflation rose by a smaller amount than expected in July, boosting the chances of another rate cut by the Bank of England.
The annual rate of consumer price inflation increased to 2.2% after two months at the Bank of England's 2% target, but this was below the 2.3% forecast.
The BoE cut interest rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% at the start of this month, and financial markets now price in a 44% chance of a quarter-point BoE rate cut in September, up from 36% before the data was released.
EUR/USD climbed 0.3% to 1.1019, rising to levels not seen this year after France’s European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation rose to 2.7% in July, from 2.5% in the period through June.
The European Central Bank started cutting interest rates in June, and many expect the policymakers to agree to another reduction in September, although rising inflation would make this more unlikely.
“We see the uptick in EUR/USD into the upper half of the 1.09-1.10 range as the start of a longer-lasting upward trend,” said ING. “We target a move to 1.12 in the near term on the back of a tighter rate spread and stabilising risk sentiment.” Kiwi dollar slumps after rate cut
In Asia, NZD/USD fell 1% to 0.6014 after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 bps, with Governor Adrian Orr stating that the bank had also considered a 50 bps reduction.
The RBNZ flagged progress in inflation reaching its 1% to 3% annual target, and also noted market expectations that interest rates will fall by 100 basis points by mid-2025.
USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 147.15, steadying after strong overnight gains, although further strength in the yen was limited by improved risk appetite.
Second-quarter gross domestic product data from Japan is due on Thursday, and is likely to factor into the Bank of Japan’s plans to trim rates.
USD/CNY dropped 0.1% to 7.1470, with industrial production and retail sales data due later this week.
Source: Investing.com
