Asia FX weakens, dollar at near 3-mth high amid rate, election jitters

Most Asian currencies weakened on Wednesday as uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and the upcoming presidential elections kept traders risk-averse, while the dollar remained at a near three-month high.

Regional currencies were nursing losses over the past two weeks, as signs of resilience in the U.S. economy furthered bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a slower pace. 

The Japanese yen was among the worst hit by this notion, with the currency hitting a near three-month low this week. Anticipation of a Japanese general election and a Bank of Japan meeting also weighed on the yen. 

Focus was also on more signals on stimulus from China, with the yuan remaining at two-month lows.  Dollar at near 3-mth high as yields rise 

The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending recent gains as traders bet on a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Traders were seen pricing in a 85.9% chance for a 25 basis point cut in November, and a 14.1% chance rates will remain unchanged, CME Fedwatch showed.

This notion was furthered by recent data showing the U.S. economy remained resilient, underpinning expectations for U.S. inflation. Treasury yields surged on expectations of relatively higher rates, with the 10-year yield hitting a three-month high this week.

The dollar was also buoyed by positioning ahead of the 2024 presidential election, which is about two weeks away. Republican nominee Donald Trump was seen gaining an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, recent polls and prediction markets showed, although they are still set for a tight race.  Yen weakness persists with USDJPY near 152 

The yen continued to rapidly unwind gains made over the past two months, with the USDJPY pair rising 0.5% on Wednesday and coming in sight of 152 yen- its highest level since late-July. 

The currency was pressured by growing doubts over the BOJ’s ability to hike interest rates further, especially in the face of a potential leadership change in the Japanese government. Japanese general elections are set to take place this Sunday, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party facing the possibility of needing a coalition to stay in power. 

The BOJ is also set to meet next week, but is unlikely to hike rates. Before that, consumer inflation from Tokyo is due this Friday. 

Broader Asian currencies were mostly weaker. The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair rose 0.1%, with focus turning to an upcoming meeting of China’s National People’s Congress for more cues on fiscal spending.

The Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair rose 0.1%, while the Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair was unchanged. 

The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair rose 0.3%, while the Indian rupee’s USDINR pair hovered close to record highs. 

Source: Investing.com