Asia FX firms slightly, dollar steady as CPI data looms

Most Asian currencies firmed slightly on Thursday, recovering a measure of recent losses, while the dollar steadied near a seven-week peak ahead of key consumer inflation data. 

Regional currencies were nursing losses over the past week amid growing doubts over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate cuts. 

This trend was somewhat offset by the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting showing policymakers in full support of the central bank’s 50 basis point cut then. But they also remained uncommitted over the pace of future easing. 

Some improving sentiment towards China also drove Asian currencies, as Beijing signaled plans to begin rolling out fiscal stimulus measures.  Dollar steadies with CPI data on tap

The dollar index and dollar index futures fell slightly in Asian trade, but remained close to seven-week highs hit earlier this week.

Focus was squarely on consumer price index inflation data due later in the day, which is likely to factor into the Fed’s plans for interest rates. The data is expected to show headline CPI inflation eased slightly, while core CPI remained sticky. 

Strong payrolls data released last week saw traders wipe out bets that the central bank will cut rates by 50 bps again in November. 

Traders were seen pricing in a 79.5% chance for a 25 bps cut in November, and a 20.5% chance for a hold, CME Fedwatch showed. Chinese yuan firms with fiscal stimulus in focus 

The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair fell 0.2%, reversing some recent weakness as traders looked to more stimulus measures from Beijing to support growth.

China’s finance ministry said it will hold a briefing on Saturday to outline plans for fiscal stimulus, after a raft of recent monetary stimulus measures largely disappointed markets.

Still, any more stimulus measures herald weakness in the yuan, especially if local interest rates fall further. 

Most Asian units firmed on Thursday but were nursing recent losses. The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair fell 0.1% after hitting an over two-month high. The currency took little support from stronger-than-expected producer price index inflation data, as markets bet that the Bank of Japan will face difficulty in raising interest rates further.

The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair rose 0.3%, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair fell slightly. 

The Indian rupee’s USDINR pair remained close to record highs, with the rupee facing weakness after the Reserve Bank of India signaled a shift away from its hawkish stance. 

The Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair rose 0.2%, tracking some optimism over China.

Source: Investing.com