UBS sees eased risks in European gas despite uncertainties

Analysis from UBS indicates a decrease in the risk premium for European gas, as stable Russian supply has led to a drop in TTF futures below €45/MWh, down from earlier winter highs of €49/MWh.

Despite ongoing uncertainties around Russian piped gas exports to Europe, the market has shown resilience with prices expected to fluctuate in the low to mid-€40 range for the remainder of the winter season.

European gas storage levels have aligned with the five-year average, standing at 81% or 84 billion cubic meters (bcm) as of December 10, although this is 10% lower than the same period in 2023.

The rate of net withdrawals has increased, surpassing both last year's and the five-year average figures, attributed to colder temperatures and a slowdown in LNG imports. Projections suggest that storage could end this winter in the low-40% range, which is 15% below this year's levels but 8% above the five-year average.

In November, the demand for gas in Europe saw a year-over-year increase of 3% to 35bcm, largely due to colder weather, yet it remained 16% below the average for the years 2017-2021. The power sector experienced a rise in gas usage as a result of lower wind generation and reduced temperatures.

Furthermore, industrial demand in the EU's top five consuming countries went up by 15% month-over-month, though it was still lower compared to the previous year and the three-year average.

Piped gas imports into Europe remained relatively unchanged month-over-month and year-over-year in November, with UBS Evidence Lab data showing a total of 16.3bcm. Norwegian supplies stayed level from the previous month but saw a year-over-year decrease due to unplanned outages.

Russian gas imports experienced a slight decline of 5% month-over-month, equating to 0.1bcm, amidst a contractual dispute between OMV and Gazprom (MCX:GAZP ). However, imports through other routes were stable, with only a 1% month-over-month reduction at 3.9bcm.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Source: Investing.com

Останні публікації
Oil prices slip slightly lower; caution ahead of Trump inauguration
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Gold prices steady ahead of Trump inauguration; volatility likely
22.01.2025 - 09:00
European natural gas prices dip ahead of Trump's inauguration
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Column-Global aluminium market faces a year of trade turbulence: Andy Home
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Trump directs US government to cut consumer costs, gives no details
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Oil dips as market awaits Trump's executive orders on energy
22.01.2025 - 09:00
FBI Acting Director Paul Abbate retires from the bureau, official says
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Analysis-Trump faces stiff challenges delivering on his promised 'Golden Age'
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Trump revokes Biden 50% EV target, freezes unspent charging funds
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Trump repeals Biden's efforts to block oil drilling on US coasts, Arctic
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Gold prices shine on safe-haven demand as traders try to gauge Trump's policies
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Texas ports, pilots suspend some operations as winter storm hits
22.01.2025 - 09:00
European gas prices volatile as Trump lifts moratorium on new export licenses
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Trump executive orders target climate, immigration policy, federal employees
22.01.2025 - 09:00
Factbox-European companies exposed as Trump takes aim at US offshore wind
22.01.2025 - 09:00

© Analytic DC. All Rights Reserved.

new
Аналіз ринку Як вплине завтра звіт NFP на курс долара США?