Oil prices drop on supply glut fears despite OPEC+ output cut extension

By Laila Kearney

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 1% on Friday and were headed for weekly losses as analysts projected a supply surplus next year on floundering demand despite an OPEC+ decision to delay output hikes and extend deep production cuts to the end of 2026.

Brent crude futures were down 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $71.32 per barrel at 12:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 87 cents, or 1.3%, to $67.43 per barrel.

For the week, Brent was on track to fall by more than 2%, while WTI was on course for a roughly 1% drop.

On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.

Weak global oil demand, and the prospect of OPEC+ ramping up production as soon as prices rise, have weighed on prices, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho (NYSE:MFG ) in New York. 

"They're just waiting for better pricing and once they get that, they're going to start jumping in again," Yawger said.

OPEC+, which is responsible for about half of the world's oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand - especially from top crude importer China - and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.

"While OPEC+'s decision to hold off strengthens fundamentals in the near term, it could be seen as an implicit admission that demand is sluggish," analysts at HSBC Global Research said.

Bank of America forecasts that increasing oil surpluses will drive the price of Brent to average $65 a barrel in 2025, while expecting oil demand growth to rebound to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the bank said in a note on Friday.

HSBC, meanwhile, now expects a smaller oil market surplus of 0.2 million bpd, from 0.5 million bpd previously, it said in a note.

Brent has largely stayed in a tight range of $70-$75 per barrel in the past month, as investors weighed weak demand signals in China and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

"The general narrative is that the market is stuck in its rather narrow range. While immediate developments might push it out of this range on the upside briefly, the medium-term view remains rather pessimistic," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

Also pressuring prices was a mixed U.S. jobs report that showed a strong rebound in hiring but also a slight rise in the unemployment rate. 



Following the data, the U.S. dollar index , which trades inversely with oil prices, recovered from its lows and was last up 0.2% at 105.93 points.

"In the absence of a positive currency factor, other bearish headlines will likely receive an accentuated response in eventually pushing the key crude benchmarks to as low as $61 and $65 by month's end," said Jim Ritterbusch of consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.

Source: Investing.com