When will Sensex, Nifty bounce back to pre-election level? Check top predictions

Investors worry about Modi 3.0's reform push due to coalition dependence, causing market volatility. Historically, post-election, Nifty rebounds, but rich valuations concern FIIs. Analysts predict normalization, and suggest call spreads. JPMorgan targets 22,000, while Bernstein predicts 23,500.

With investors being depressed about 's ability to push through difficult reforms due to dependence on NDA coalition partners, fear has overpowered greed on Dalal Street with PSUs, and other high-flying Modi stocks facing most of the heat in the crash.

However, such wild swings on either side are typical of days with either panic or euphoria ruling the minds of . The last three elections show that it typically has taken about one week for implied to revert to pre-election levels.

Historically, has delivered +9%/+8% return in the 3/6 months after Lok Sabha elections since 1991, showing that in the past a correction or dip has typically ended up as a buying opportunity over the longer term.

Also read |

analysts are expecting a post-election normalisation of implied volatility in Indian equities, the degree and speed of which will largely depend on the participation of .

"With the election behind us, the Indian is likely to resume its long-standing upward trend. We recommend positioning for potential spot-up and volatility-down scenarios by buying call spreads funded by selling puts," it said.

The global brokerage's preferred strategy is to buy Nifty 27Jun24 23000-24000 call spread funded by selling 27Jun24 20000 put on Nifty.

While JPMorgan's Nifty year-end target remains at 22,000, has retained the view of high single-digit returns with an unchanged target of 23,500.

"The medium-term growth story in India does not change, as strong cycles that have begun are likely to support themselves. The extent and duration of the cycle will become clearer once the new government is sworn in as we look at the 100-day agenda. We retain our modest view for this year with the year-end (Dec 24) target set at 23,500 (remains unchanged). While we see some room for a near-term rebound after Tuesday's sharp correction, the material upside is limited as the fundraising calendar will likely commence after the elections," Bernstein said.

India's rich valuations are a worry for FIIs. At 19x, Nifty remains above its 18-year historical average PE i.e. at 85th percentile and well over 1SD of the average. This also makes India one of the most expensive markets in the world and its premium to Asia Ex-Japan and EM peers is more than 1SD above the historical average.

"One of the arguments behind India's rich valuations has been the political stability/policy certainty afforded by a strong government. Some of those assumptions could now come under question. We remain UW India in an EM context," said.
Poll Trackers

Source: Stocks-Markets-Economic Times

Publicații recente
Diamondback Energy insiders sell over $2.3 billion in stock
25.09.2024 - 06:00
Asian stocks rise, China rallies further on stimulus cheer
25.09.2024 - 06:00
Roivant Sciences executive sells shares worth over $2.9 million
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Alco Investment Co buys Banzai International shares worth over $1m
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Roivant Sciences CEO sells over $23 million in company stock
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Endeavor Group CEO sells over $4.9 million in class A stock
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Viant Technology CFO Larry Madden sells over $77k in company stock
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Power solutions insider sells over $1.1m in company stock
25.09.2024 - 05:00
Palantir Technologies Inc. sells shares in Surf Air Mobility
25.09.2024 - 04:00
US stock futures steady after Nvidia pushes Wall St to record highs
25.09.2024 - 04:00
Country Garden Services to sell stake in Zhuhai Wanda for $446 million
25.09.2024 - 04:00
Zscaler director Brown sells shares worth over $1.39 million
25.09.2024 - 04:00
Edgewise Therapeutics CMO sells $202k in company stock
25.09.2024 - 04:00
Edgewise Therapeutics general counsel sells over $1.9m in company stock
25.09.2024 - 04:00
Edgewise Therapeutics CFO sells over $3.5 million in company stock
25.09.2024 - 04:00

© Analytic DC. All Rights Reserved.

new
Prezentare generală a pieței Sentimentul consumatorilor din SUA a scăzut în septembrie
Bine ați venit în mesageria de suport!!
*
*

Solicitarea dvs. a fost trimisă cu succes!
Veți fi contactat în scurt timp.