Wells Fargo raises S&P 500 year-end 2025 target to 6500-6700 range

Investing.com -- Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC ) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

The new target marks an increase from the previous range of 6200-6400 and is underpinned by an upward revision in earnings per share (EPS) projections for the index, now expected to reach $275, up from $270.

The adjustment comes alongside Wells Fargo’s revised US economic outlook for 2025. The bank now forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 2.5%, an increase from the previous 2.3% estimate.

This reflects higher liquidity, spurred by a US Treasury cash spend-down, and stronger consumer confidence fueled by rising household wealth amid a stock market rally. The institute also pointed to potential policy extensions, such as provisions under the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.

“Likewise, we believe deregulation is likely and should support profit margins,” Wells Fargo added. “While these policy supports are significant positives, we expect at least a partial offset to spending as proposed tariffs likely create inflation and pressure interest rates higher late in 2025.”

In addition to large caps, Wells Fargo raised targets for mid and small-cap equities. The Russell Midcap Index is now forecast to end 2025 in the 4100-4300 range, up from 3900-4100, while the Russell 2000 Index target has been increased to 2700-2900 from 2500-2700.

Although the Russell 2000 EPS projection was lowered to $80 from $85 due to weak 2024 earnings, the institute expects small-cap equities to benefit from accelerating economic momentum later in 2025.

The investment bank’s outlook incorporates potential policy changes under the incoming administration, including tariffs and immigration reforms. These measures could drive modest inflationary pressures, with US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation now forecast to rise to 3.3% by year-end 2025, compared to the previous 3.0% target.

Wells Fargo notes that a Republican sweep is likely to introduce policy changes that it believes “may be announced early and implemented quickly, and tariffs and immigration reform are among the most prominent examples.”

“We anticipate that labor-market disruptions caused by an immediate border closing and deportations over the course of 2025 will boost wage pressures by the latter part of next year, most noticeably in agribusiness, construction, and labor-intensive services,” the report adds.

The firm points out that new tariffs on China, expected under the incoming administration, will contribute to further inflation pressures. While universal tariffs across trading partners are a possibility, they may face legal hurdles.

Wells Fargo believes tariffs are likely to be phased in gradually, similar to 2017, with the most significant negative effects on inflation and economic growth projected to emerge late in 2025 and extend into 2026.

Source: Investing.com