UBS sees S&P 500 hitting 6,600 despite fewer Fed cuts

Investing.com --US equities experienced a stabilization on Thursday, while US bond yields continued to climb as market participants adjusted their expectations for a more gradual Federal Reserve easing cycle anticipated to begin in 2025.

The S&P 500 saw a slight decline of 0.1% settling at 5,867, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries increased by 5 basis points, reaching 4.57%. Concurrently, the US dollar index saw an appreciation of 0.4% to 108.4. In the commodities market, gold prices fell by 1.7%, trading at $2,605 per ounce.

UBS analysts have been monitoring the Federal Reserve's strategy, which involves balancing the labor market's potential downturn against the risk of sustained inflation above the 2% target.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted a softening trend in the labor market and anticipates this trend to persist, with the possibility of unemployment rising further.

Despite mixed US inflation data, with headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation close to the 2% target but core inflation up to 2.8% in October, the Fed is expected to wait for lower core inflation rates before implementing further rate reductions.

The financial institution has updated its forecast, now expecting two 25 basis point cuts in June and September of 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated 100 basis point reduction spread over four quarters.

This projection is under the assumption that core inflation will slow to below 2.5% by the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Nonetheless, the Fed's decisions remain contingent on incoming economic data, with weaker labor or inflation figures potentially prompting an earlier rate cut in March.

Despite anticipating fewer rate cuts from the Fed, UBS maintains its recommendation for investors to focus on high grade and investment grade bonds, diversified fixed income, and equity income strategies.

While the urgency for "positioning for lower rates" may have lessened, UBS still finds absolute fixed income yields appealing and advises investors to seek diverse income sources. The firm also projects a favorable outlook for US equities, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of the next year, supported by various factors including potential policy changes under a second Trump administration.

UBS continues to advise investors to "sell further dollar strength," citing the currency's overvaluation despite its recent support from shifting Fed and government policy expectations.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Source: Investing.com