UBS downgrades Porsche SE to "sell"

Investing.com -- Analysts at UBS have downgraded Porsche Automobil Holding SE to a "sell" rating from a prior "neutral" stance, in a note dated Monday. 

The note cites a reduced price target for Porsche SE, now set at €32 per share, down from €42, reflecting UBS's revised financial models for its core holdings, Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p ) Group and Porsche AG.

UBS points to challenges in both revenue growth and profitability within Porsche's core investments. 

Despite anticipated revenue stabilization at €39 billion for Porsche AG in 2025, operating profit margins are projected to marginally improve to 14.6% from the currently depressed levels. 

This limited growth contrasts with expectations for a robust recovery typically associated with Porsche's luxury valuation. 

The analysts flagged continued execution issues, weak cost discipline, and a suboptimal governance structure as key inhibitors to performance.

Volkswagen's financial outlook further exacerbates the concerns. UBS has maintained its "sell" rating on VW, revising its price target for VW's preferred shares to €75, down from €84. 

The group's complex restructuring in Germany and potential charges in the fourth quarter are expected to strain dividend payments, a critical income stream for Porsche SE. 

UBS forecasts a more than 50% reduction in VW's dividend per share to €4, further pressuring Porsche SE's dividend income.

Additionally, Porsche SE's financial stability appears to be at risk. The holding company's high net debt of €5.1 billion and a narrowing 30% net asset value discount are seen as unjustified given the headwinds. 

The analysts expressed concern over Porsche SE's ability to manage refinancing pressures starting from 2027, particularly in light of declining dividends from its key investments.

UBS's revised valuation underscores a subdued outlook for Porsche SE, driven by diminished growth expectations in its underlying assets and structural inefficiencies. 

Porsche SE needs Volkswagen and Porsche AG to perform better, especially in terms of dividends. If not, the future looks grim.

Source: Investing.com