Trump trade has stalled after peaking post-election, JPM analysts say

Investing.com -- The momentum of the so-called "Trump trade" has noticeably cooled following its peak a week after the U.S. election, according to a note from JPMorgan analysts on Thursday.

They explain that while initially echoing the market rally seen after the 2016 election, the phenomenon has since lost steam across various asset classes.

"Incrementally since November 13th, the Trump trade appears to have subsided significantly in rates and stalled in other asset classes," the analysts wrote, citing their comparisons to the market response following the 2016 election.

JPMorgan outlined this dynamic in their analysis, which compares market pricing shortly after the election to that in December. The analysts highlighted that while some sectors, including U.S. small caps, 10-year Treasury yields, and inflation breakevens, might still benefit, others have already shown signs of exhaustion.

"The Trump trade seems exhausted, however, in the credit space and in terms of the relative performance of U.S. versus non-U.S. equities," they observed.

JPMorgan also noted the relative stalling in the U.S. dollar and regional banks, suggesting that initial optimism has given way to a more tempered outlook.

This analysis draws parallels with the post-election market trajectory in 2016, emphasizing that the reverberations from the current election began earlier this year, starting in August.

By focusing on the moves post-August 1st, JPMorgan aimed to exclude market distortions related to recession fears following weak payroll data in early August, which subsided during the fall months.

JPMorgan says that some opportunities may still exist, concluding: "The Trump trade has further room to propagate US small caps, 10y UST yields and 5y5y inflation breakevens, the dollar as well as US regional banks."

Source: Investing.com