Trump Media, crypto stocks surge after assassination attempt raises poll win odds

Online PredictIt showed bets of an election win for Trump at 67 cents, up from Friday's 60 cents, with Joe Biden at 27 cents.

Shares of & Technology Group (TMTG) soared 35%. Trump owns a majority stake in the company, worth about $3.8 billion as of June 25 according to LSEG data, and it is the parent of social media platform Truth Social.

TMTG stock has surged 75% this year, driven by retail traders betting on a Trump win at the Nov. 5 rematch against Democratic candidate and U.S. President Joe Biden.

Crypto stocks also got a boost, tracking bitcoin's jump to a two-week high, as Trump has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global , bitcoin miners Riot Platforms Inc and Marathon Digital added between 5% and 6.5%.

"Investors are becoming more confident of a Trump victory, and it is starting to be more heavily reflected in certain sectors," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, but added that the impact on the overall market was more muted.

"Most investors are not changing their overall commitment to U.S. equities. After all, the broad stock market rose under the last Trump administration and has risen under the Biden administration as well."

The benchmark S&P 500 edged up 0.5%, nearing a record high.

Gun makers and ammunition stocks Smith & Wesson Brands , Sturm Ruger & Company and Ammo jumped between 8.8% and 14%. Gun stocks tend to rise after a mass shooting as calls for gun control in the past have led some people to buy more firearms out of fear that their availability would be limited.

Prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic also rose 9.4% and 5.6%, respectively. Both are potential beneficiaries of a Trump presidency as he has promised to crack down on illegal immigration, which could boost demand for detention centers.

Software developer Phunware, hired by Trump's 2020 presidential re-election campaign to build a phone app, jumped 21%, while video-sharing platform Rumble, popular with conservatives, added 9%.

On the downside, clean energy stocks slipped as Trump has said he would reverse many of the Biden administration's signature climate policies, including tax incentives, if he wins the election.

Invesco Solar ETF fell 5.7% and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF fell 3.6%.

U.S. voters view Trump as the better candidate for the economy, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, even as Biden's White House seeks to benefit from a solid economy with inflation slowing and low unemployment.

"It is fair to assume that any bump in Trump's approval rating stemming from this event could dissipate between now and election day, but we believe Trump's defiance following the attack could be the defining image of this election cycle," said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG.