Tesla stock: Q4 deliveries preview

Investing.com -- UBS said in a note Monday that it expects Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA ) to announce its Q4 2024 delivery numbers on January 2, with the bank’s analysts forecasting approximately 510,000 units, reflecting a 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter increase. 

UBS’s estimate is slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus of 512,000 but aligns with investor expectations, which range between 500,000 and 510,000.

"Given the AI-driven narrative on the stock, we don't believe the delivery results will be as meaningful as in the past," UBS analysts noted, emphasizing the diminished impact of delivery figures on Tesla's stock performance compared to earlier periods.

Tesla’s energy storage segment also warrants attention, with UBS projecting deployments of 9.1 GWh for the quarter, a 32% sequential increase. 

The bank notes that the estimate aligns closely with Visible Alpha’s 9.6 GWh projection. However, UBS cautioned that "energy storage deployments are lumpy," making predictions less precise.

Following the delivery report, the focus will shift to Tesla's earnings call at the end of January. 

UBS highlighted that investor attention is likely to center on Elon Musk’s commentary, especially regarding 2025 guidance and AI developments, rather than purely financial metrics.

For 2025, Tesla has indicated a target of 20-30% unit growth, translating to 2.2-2.4 million units, which exceeds UBS and consensus forecasts of 1.9 and 2.0 million, respectively. 

The bank says new models, including a lower-priced vehicle expected early in the year and a refreshed Model Y, could drive these numbers.

UBS states that regional trends show varied performance: steady growth in China bolstered by promotions, softness in Europe due to slowed exports, and flat deliveries in the U.S. 

The bank noted potential EV tax credit changes as a factor influencing near-term U.S. demand.

Source: Investing.com