Nvidia likely to deliver a 'small' beat and raise says Citi

Investing.com -- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA ) is due to report earnings for the October quarter on November 20, with Citi expecting a “smaller ‘beat & raise’” due to the ongoing Blackwell transition.

Citi analyst Atif Malik projects that results will align with expectations, modeling total and data center sales at $33 billion and $29 billion, respectively, just below the consensus estimates of $34 billion and $30 billion, citing Nvidia’s transition to the Blackwell chip series.

Looking ahead to the January quarter, Malik has raised the data center sales forecast to account for an estimated $3-4 billion from Blackwell “as Nvidia has resolved the Blackwell mask issues but remains supply constrained,” the analyst noted.

Citi now models January quarter total and data center sales at $36.5 billion and $32 billion, compared to market expectations of $37.5 billion and $33 billion.

It expects a gross margin of 73% for the quarter, roughly 30 basis points below consensus, due to a higher mix of the H200 chip.

According to Malik, a larger “beat and raise” is anticipated starting in the April quarter as gross margins improve with an increased share of Blackwell chip sales.

The analyst has also revised his EPS estimates for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 upward by $0.10, $0.55, and $0.08, respectively, driven by higher data center sales.

Alongside this, he has lifted the target price on Nvidia stock from $150 to $170 and maintained a Buy rating.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS ) analysts shared a similar sentiment on NVDA this week. They have raised the estimates for the stock ahead of the upcoming earnings print, noting that while the chipmaker faces ongoing supply constraints, another strong quarter is expected. Still, the bank anticipates more substantial upward revisions later in the year.

Nvidia remains Morgan Stanley's top stock pick. Analysts describe this as “something of a transitional quarter and thus not a major catalyst for the stock” but reaffirm its Overweight rating, with the expectation “that the Blackwell cycle will continue to drive meaningful upside through 2h.”

Source: Investing.com