Jefferies downgrades Boston Beer to Hold

Investing.com -- Jefferies downgraded Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM ) to Hold from Buy in a note Friday, citing declining sales trends and limited growth visibility across key product lines.

The firm also lowered its price target to $325, expressing concerns about the company’s performance and uncertain outlook.

“We thought Truly, beer, and cider declines would improve this summer — they got worse,” analysts wrote.

Jefferies pointed out that Truly Hard Seltzer continues to underperform, with its year-to-date declines worsening from -22% to -23% during the June-September period.

Meanwhile, they note that rival White Claw showed modest growth, indicating Truly’s struggles go beyond broader market challenges. Beer and cider brands also declined in the mid-to-high single digits, further weakening the portfolio.

Jefferies said Twisted Tea—Boston Beer’s primary growth driver—has also lost momentum. Growth slowed to 8%, impacted by rising competition.

“The trajectory for this brand must change,” the analysts warned, highlighting the absence of a new blockbuster product to offset declines in the rest of the portfolio.

Additionally, Jefferies cited supply chain challenges, such as third-party pre-payments and shortfall fees, which will delay margin improvements through 2025.

They explained that although Boston Beer aims to reach a gross margin in the high 40s, this will take time to materialize.

On a positive note, the firm said the company’s strong balance sheet, with no debt and healthy cash reserves, supports potential capital returns to shareholders.

However, Jefferies expressed skepticism about near-term improvements. “This team will eventually get it right, but we wait for more evidence,” the note added.

Jefferies concluded that while Boston Beer has a history of finding new growth avenues, “sales improvement timing remains unclear.” With minimal visibility into when volumes might recover, the firm believes it’s prudent to stay on the sidelines for now.

Source: Investing.com