Investing.com poll: Who will the US Presidential election?

Investing.com -- With the US presidential election fast approaching on November 5, market participants are closely tracking developments as the race heats up.

According to analysts at Gavekal Research, financial markets have begun to factor in a potential victory for Donald Trump, alongside a clean sweep of both houses of Congress by the Republican Party.

As expectations rise that such a scenario would allow for inflationary, pro-growth policies—such as tax cuts, deficit spending, and deregulation—US stocks, the dollar, and bond yields have all strengthened in recent weeks.

Despite the assessment from Gavekal, some recent polls suggest the race is still too tight to call.

With that in mind, Investing.com is asking in a poll:

Who will win the U.S. presidential election?



Gavekal Research analysts noted that the market’s apparent confidence in a Republican sweep may be overstated.

Although recent market moves reflect optimism about a GOP trifecta, Gavekal cautioned that polls suggest the race remains close, with key swing states showing Republican leads "well within historical margins of error." This leaves room for surprises on election night.

"If Republicans win the trifecta, market reaction will likely be muted," the analysts wrote. They explained that the outcome has already been largely priced into financial markets.

However, if the election produces a different result—such as a narrow GOP victory without full control of Congress or a win for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris—the impact on markets could be significant, according to the firm.

“If the outcome is anything other than a GOP sweep, as the polls suggest is more likely than investors believe, market moves could be much more pronounced,” Gavekal said.

Source: Investing.com