HSBC trims Nvidia’s PT on supply chain, says "beat & raise" in H1 FY26 unlikely

Investing.com -- HSBC lowered the target price on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA ) to $185 from $195 but maintained its "buy" rating, given supply chain issues for the GB200 chip in the first half of fiscal 2026.

Supply chain challenges, particularly around original design manufacturers assembly, are expected to weigh on first half of fiscal 2026 revenue momentum, making a “beat & raise” scenario unlikely.

However, Nvidia's B200 AI GPU ramp could help offset some of the GB200 shortfall. The anticipated B300/GB300 launch in second half of 2026 may also delay procurement, further limiting near-term upside.

“It looks unlikely that Nvidia will maintain a “beat & raise” of $2 bln in quarterly revenue forecast cadence or meet potential upper-end bullish 4Q25/2Q26 sell-side forecasts of USD42bn/USD47bn at least until 2H26 when better visibility emerges over the GB200 supply chain ramp-up,” analyst wrote.

Long-term AI demand remains strong, supported by robust hyperscaler capex, including Microsoft’s $80 billion data center investment. Nvidia's FY26 datacenter revenue forecast of $94.6 billion aligns with this demand outlook.

HSBC expects a stronger second half of fiscal 2026 ramp to meet forecasts, despite trimming its EPS estimate by 6% to $5.74, still 28% above consensus. The revised target reflects an unchanged FY26 P/E of 32x.

Source: Investing.com