Haven rush ‘Trump trades’ back on investor minds

Traders will also be watching futures contracts on the S&P 500 index and on the market, both of which start trading at 6 p.m. in New York; Cash trading of US bonds won’t get going until 7 a.m. in London due to a national holiday in Japan.

“This weekend’s events will likely cause increased volatility on Monday open both in stock and bond markets,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “We expect to see flight to like Swiss franc and gold. Bitcoin has reacted positively to the news as a result of kneejerk flight to safety.”

Initial market commentary suggested the shooting of Trump at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania may prompt traders to boost his probability of success in November’s election. Trump’s presidential bid has gained momentum across after 81-year President Joe Biden flopped in the first presidential debate on June 27th. In the aftermath of Saturday’s attack chances of him becoming president again increased, according to PredictIt data.

Trump’s support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs are generally viewed as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

Assets positively linked to the socalled Trump trade include the shares of energy firms, private prisons, credit-card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also closely watch market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those on the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which had begun to price in the US vote.