Goldman Sachs stays pro-risk with hedges into year-end

Investing.com -- Following the summer "risk off" period, risky assets quickly rebounded, driven by the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift, China’s stimulus measures, and stronger-than-expected US economic data.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs said Monday their macro outlook remains positive, with healthy US growth and expectations of a global growth recovery next year, supported by central banks cutting rates and further disinflation.

"Fed cutting cycles tend to support risky assets as long as a recession is avoided,” strategists said.

Although the US is exhibiting late-cycle characteristics, Goldman’s team notes that the private sector remains strong, reducing the likelihood of a recession. This, they argue, provides resilience against shocks but also opens the door for potential re-leveraging.

Thus, strategists said they remain pro-risk for the next 12 months, upgrading equities to Overweight and cutting credit to Underweight for the next three months, from Neutral.

“During late-cycle backdrops equities can still deliver attractive returns driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion while credit total returns are usually constrained by tight credit spreads and rising yields,” strategists continued.

"Equities can still offer structural growth opportunities around AI and selective cyclical catch-up opportunities,” they added.

In mid-July, Goldman Sachs shifted to a Neutral stance on equities, from Overweight, and credit from Underweight due to concerns about a potential market correction, as bullish sentiment clashed with slowing growth momentum.

However, global equities have since undergone a round trip and are now roughly flat, strategists said.

Moreover, better US data and policy easing have reduced near-term downside risks. Although the risk of a bear market remains low, volatility could increase due to geopolitical shocks, the US elections, and an evolving growth-inflation mix.

Still, Goldman strategists believe that reducing uncertainty could provide a tailwind for risky assets toward the end of the year, leading them to favor a long position with selective hedges over maintaining a Neutral stance on equities.

The bank’s US strategy team has recently upped their S&P 500 year-end price target to 6,000 and 12-month target to 6,300. They also upgraded their 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast to 11% from 6%.

Source: Investing.com