Despite Fed pivot, Wells Fargo sees a double-digit return for S&P 500 in 2025

Investing.com -- Wells Fargo remains optimistic about the equity markets despite the uncertainty stemming from the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

The firm projects a double-digit return for the S&P 500 in 2025, setting a year-end target of 7,007, following an expected consolidation to 5,830 in 2024.

In its note, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC ) acknowledges the challenges posed by the Fed's decisions, including a 25-basis-point cut in December, which analysts described as "a close call."

They note that rate adjustments have caused real yields to rise, with 10-year real rates reaching 2.18%, comparable to levels from 2006 during a tightening cycle.

"Higher reals [are] a plus for bond investors but not equity players," said the bank.

Despite this, the outlook for 2025 remains robust. Wells Fargo anticipates "solid growth," supported by an "improving regulatory environment" and "good fundamentals."

"We expect GDP forecasts to rise in 2025, and for inflation to not be driven meaningfully higher by tariffs," adds the bank. "The Fed will still ease, the regulatory environment improves, and fundamentals stay constructive."

Wells Fargo's strategy is centered on a sector "barbell," emphasizing Communication Services (40%), Banks (40%), and Staples (20%). This allocation, they argue, offers an attractive balance of "upside participation and downside protection," performing modestly better than the broader S&P 500 during recent market turbulence.

While acknowledging near-term challenges, Wells Fargo sees opportunity ahead.

They conclude, "Our sector barbell offers an attractive return distribution," and the combination of economic growth and improved fundamentals supports their bullish view on equity markets in the coming year.

Source: Investing.com