CSX stock falls over 4% on worse-than-expected Q3 results, cautious forecast

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX ) reported disappointing third quarter results on Wednesday, with earnings and revenue falling short of analyst expectations despite growth in volume and operating income.

CSX shares were down more than 4% in premarket trading Thursday. 

The railroad operator posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.46, missing the analyst consensus of $0.48. Revenue came in at $3.62 billion, below estimates of $3.68 billion but up 1% YoY. Total volume increased 3% compared to the same quarter last year.

Operating income rose 7% to $1.35 billion, while the operating margin expanded 180 basis points to 37.4%. Net earnings grew to $894 million from $828 million in the prior year period.

CSX CEO Joe Hinrichs said, "CSX's commitment to excellent service allowed us to deliver meaningful growth in volume, operating income, and operating margin in the third quarter."

The company saw growth in merchandise and intermodal volumes, along with pricing gains in merchandise. However, this was partially offset by lower coal revenue due to declining global benchmark prices, as well as reduced fuel surcharges.

Hinrichs noted that CSX faced "significant challenges" from recent hurricanes but maintained network flexibility and resilience thanks to employee dedication.

The company offered a cautious forecast for the fourth quarter, citing the effects of hurricanes Milton and Helene on key operational areas. While CSX had earlier projected low-single-digit revenue growth for the second half of 2024, it now expects revenue to be "down moderately" in the fourth quarter, with a $200 million negative impact due to lower fuel prices and coal.

"This is disappointing given the tepid +1.3% y-y revenue growth in 3Q24, which included y-y declines in Intermodal and Coal RPU of -4.5% and -5.4%, respectively," Citi analysts commented.

"We remain eager to hear more from the company at its upcoming Investor Day in November, as we worry that without an improvement in yields / pricing, CSX likely faces the prospect of continued downward consensus revisions to EPS and negative investor sentiment."

Separately, Jefferies analysts lowered their Q4 and 2025 EPS estimates for CSX by 12% and 6%, respectively, saying that current headwinds are expected to be more pronounced in the fourth quarter while the company battles "what remains a challenging and uncertain underlying freight macro."

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Source: Investing.com