BofA's survey: Investors bullish dollar and US stocks, bearish everything else

Investing.com -- Investors are bullish on the US dollar and equities, but bearish on “everything else,” Bank of America revealed in its January Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS).

According to the survey, investors have reduced their cash holdings to a mere 3.9%, the lowest level since June 2021, triggering a second consecutive "sell" signal under BofA's Cash Rule. Historically, this has led to weaker equity returns in subsequent months.

“Since 2011, there have been 12 prior "sell" signals which saw global equity (ACWI ) returns of -2.4% in the 1 month after and -0.7% in the 3 months after the "sell" signal was triggered,” BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a Tuesday note.

The survey shows a net 41% of fund managers Overweight equities, although this marks a decline from December’s three-year high of 49%.

BofA notes a “big January equity rotation from US stocks to Europe,” with positioning in US equities dropping from a net 36% overweight to 19%, while Eurozone stocks moved from a net 22% underweight to 1% overweight. This marks the largest monthly increase in Eurozone exposure in 25 years.

“January also saw global FMS equity investors rotate back to large>small & growth>value,” the note adds.

Meanwhile, 6% of surveyed managers are Underweight commodities, 11% are Underweight cash, and 20% are Underweight bonds.

The dollar remains the favored currency, with 41% of participants expecting it to outperform in 2025, followed by the Japanese yen at 29%. This positioning aligns with the most crowded trades identified in the survey: "long Magnificent 7" (53%) and "long US dollar" (27%).

On the macroeconomic front, global growth expectations turned negative at net -8%, reversing December’s optimism. The probability of a "no landing" scenario surged to 38%, with fewer participants expecting a soft or hard landing.

Inflation concerns remain elevated, with net 7% expecting higher CPI levels, the highest since March 2022. Nonetheless, a majority (79%) anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2025, with only 2% predicting a hike.

BofA strategists note that US equities, tech, and banks may face headwinds in a risk-off environment, while contrarian trades like commodities and emerging markets could benefit if fears of disorderly bond yields and tariffs do not materialize.

Source: Investing.com