BofA upgrades Bayer on favorable litigation outlook

Investing.com -- BofA Securities in a note dated Friday upgraded Bayer's (ETR:BAYGN ) rating to 'neutral' from 'underperform' reflecting a more favorable outlook on the company’s litigation challenges and overall business prospects. 

This upgrade is accompanied by an increase in the price objective to EUR 31 per share (ADR $8.55), up from EUR 21 (ADR $7.60). This is driven by a reassessment of Bayer's litigation provisions and an optimistic outlook for the resolution of key legal battles concerning glyphosate and PCB.

“The recent favourable ruling in Schaffner v. Monsanto (NYSE:MON ) creates a circuit split on the issue of federal pre-emption (essentially Bayer can’t be at fault in state litigation for failure to warn on glyphosate cancer risk when no federal agency had issued a cancer warning),” the analysts said.

BofA Securities estimates that there is a 40-50% chance that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will take up the case, with a likelihood exceeding 50% of a favorable outcome for Bayer if the case is accepted. 

A positive SCOTUS decision would resolve the glyphosate litigation and potentially remove the EUR 6 billion provision currently associated with it, which represents approximately 25% of Bayer's valuation.

Additionally, the company has received a favorable appeal ruling in the Sky Valley Education Center (SVEC) cases. The next step is the Washington State Supreme Court's decision on whether to review the Erickson case, expected by October 8, 2024. 

Should the court choose not to review, it would represent a significant win for Bayer, potentially concluding the SVEC litigation. Although personal injury lawsuits related to PCB persist in other states, the overall litigation environment is becoming less challenging for Bayer.

Reflecting these developments, BofA Securities has adjusted its valuation model for Bayer. The previously considered additional litigation provision of EUR 10 billion has been reduced to EUR 5 billion, influencing the increase in the price objective. 

The revised price objective now incorporates a 6x multiple on FY25 estimated earnings per share (PE), up from 5.5x previously.

BofA Securities characterizes Bayer as a well-diversified life sciences company with significant operations in Pharma and Crop Sciences, alongside a smaller Consumer division. 

Although the company faces a challenging business environment, particularly with projected declines in Pharma performance and a stable overall outlook, the recent favorable developments in litigation are expected to positively influence Bayer’s share price in the upcoming year.

The analysts emphasize two critical components affecting Bayer’s valuation. First, the reduction in litigation provisions offers a potential EUR 10 per share net present value (NPV) upside, which represents around 40% of the valuation. 

Second, the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation supports the EUR 31 price objective. This valuation includes a 5x EV/EBITDA multiple for Pharma, reflecting cautious expectations for its pipeline, a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple for Consumer Health, and a 9.5x EV/EBITDA multiple for Crop Sciences, with a 20% conglomerate discount applied. 

Each additional multiple on EV/EBITDA could contribute approximately EUR 3 per share to the NPV.

Source: Investing.com