Bharti Airtel Q4 Preview: Revenue likely to jump 8% YoY on higher ARPU, subscriber base

While has pegged the net profit at Rs 5,309 crore, estimates core PAT around Rs 3,665 crore for the January-March quarter. , in its preview note, has estimated adjusted PAT at Rs 2,201 crore — lowest among the brokerages.

In Q4FY23, had reported a consolidated PAT of Rs 3,005 crore attributable to the owners of the company. If the non-controlling interest is added to it, the PAT for the period becomes Rs 4,226 crore. The revenue from operations for the quarter was reported at Rs 36,009 crore.

The above estimates reveal a 26% and 22% YoY gains in PAT, respectively, in the case of Axis and Nuvama. Meanwhile Prabhudas sees a 27% YoY decline in the net profit in Q4FY24.

Bharti Airtel will announce its on May 14, Tuesday.

Here's what the brokerages recommended.

Axis Securities
Bharti Airtel is expected to report a net profit of Rs 5,309 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, which will be an uptick of 26% over Rs 4,226 crore reported in the -ago period. On the QoQ basis, this will be a jump of 85.2% over Rs 2,867 crore reported in Q3FY24.

The revenue for the reporting quarter is estimated at Rs 39,165 crore, up 8.8% versus Rs 36,009 reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Sequentially, it will likely be up by 3.3% at Rs 37,900 crore.

The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is seen at Rs 12,255 crore, which will be 32% higher from Rs 9,291 crore reported in Q4FY23. On the sequential basis, it will be a 26% uptick over Rs 9,741 crore reported in Q3FY24. margin is estimated at 31%, which will be a 550 bps gain on YoY and QoQ basis.

Axis expects Bharti Airtel to post a healthy recovery in terms of curtailing losses and reporting profits. Revenues are likely to grow by encouraging 4.7% QoQ, led by higher wireless revenues in India as well as in Africa. Operating margins are likely to witness marginal expansion due to lower commissioning costs and S&M expenses.

A strong service mix and an increase in the ARPU may aid the margins, the brokerage said.

Nuvama
Nuvama expects Bharti Airtel's core PAT to jump 41% YoY to Rs 3,655 crore in the quarter under review. On a sequential basis, the PAT could go up by 47%. As for the revenue, an 8% YoY uptick is seen at Rs 39,360 crore. On a QoQ basis, it could go up by 3% with 3.8% QoQ growth for the India business and 1.5% QoQ increase for the Africa business.

India mobile services business growth will be led by 3% ARPU growth and 35 lakh subscriber addition. EBITDA for the reporting quarter is expected to be around 20,903 crore, up by 10% YoY and 3% on QoQ basis.

Key monitorables will be the company's progress on , capex trajectory, prepaid to postpaid conversion trends, traction in home broadband and update on partly-paid rights issue.

Prabhudas Lilladher
The brokerage sees adjusted PAT of Rs 2,201 crore, a 27% YoY decline over adjusted PAT of Rs 3,005 crore reported in Q4FY23. Sequentially, it will likely be 10% lower. Bharti’s Q4FY24E consolidated revenue is expected to increase to Rs 38,736 crore, which will be a 2.2% QoQ uptick and 7.6% on a YoY gain while EBITDA is seen at Rs 20,300 crore, a 2.6% QoQ uptick.

Bharti is also targeting Rs 50,000 crore market opportunity with its enterprise offerings including CPaaS, cloud, cybersecurity and data centers as the company expects 80% of corporates will put up 5G within the next 3 years.

Bharti's ARPU is expected to be Rs 211 in Q4FY24 versus Rs 208 in Q3FY24 and Rs 193 in Q4FY23. Meanwhile the is expected to hit 348.6 million in the reporting quarter versus 345.6 million in Q3FY24 and 335.4 million in Q4FY23.

For Q4, Prabhudas factored-in subscriber growth of 3 million with ARPU increase of 1.5% QoQ. Airtel Africa business is expected to see revenue growth of 3% QoQ with 4% QoQ growth rate for the enterprise business. Home services will see revenue growth of 10% QoQ. For DTH, a growth of 2.2% QoQ is seen.

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