Berenberg initiates coverage of luxury stocks, favors absolute and soft luxury

Investing.com -- Berenberg has initiated coverage of seven luxury companies, recommending investors prioritize absolute and soft luxury stocks over aspirational and hard luxury segments.

The firm highlights three preferred names: Brunello Cucinelli (Buy, PT €110), Hermès (Buy, PT €2,330), and LVMH (Buy, PT €695), reflecting confidence in their ability to capture market share and maintain strong brand power.

Berenberg analysts believe absolute luxury brands will outperform, emphasizing, “The (absolute) luxury business model has notable strengths," including high margins, asset-light operations, strong cash flow, and robust balance sheets.

In contrast, Berenberg warns against aspirational luxury and hard luxury categories, rating Swatch a Sell (PT CHF165), citing "capital intensity, currency headwinds, and volatile (Chinese) demand."

The analysts express concern over the growing dependence on Chinese consumers, noting that China accounts for 22% of industry revenues and 60% of expected growth by 2030.

However, Berenberg warns that headwinds in China, such as debt, demographic shifts, and political uncertainties, may turn from cyclical to secular challenges.

“Consumer behavior has already changed, becoming less brand-loyal and more value-driven,” Berenberg notes.

The firm also cautions about potential mean reversion in spending trends, not only from China but also from U.S. consumers, who are currently spending well above historical norms.

Furthermore, Berenberg highlights the importance of brands leveraging creativity and vertical integration to gain market share amid slower industry growth.

It notes that companies like LVMH have demonstrated the ability to grow revenues even in flat markets, such as Japan.

Berenberg concludes with a defensive stance, recommending investors focus on absolute luxury brands, which offer both resilience and growth in a challenging macro environment.

The firm assigned Hold ratings to Kering (EPA:PRTP ) (PT €230), Moncler (PT €57) and Richemont (PT CHF 140).

Source: Investing.com