Bank stocks back to pre-Trump levels: BofA

Investing.com -- Bank stocks have returned to levels seen before the 2016 election, Bank of America analysts highlighted in a note Monday. 

BofA explains that the sector has struggled, with the KBW Bank Index (BKX) down 10% from its November 2025 peak, while the S&P 500 has dropped only 1% over the same period. 

The analysts see this pullback as an opportunity for investors, given improving regulatory conditions and anticipated growth in customer activity such as M&A, IPOs, and loan expansion.

“Bank stocks are trading at 11-12x 2025 P/E versus 12-14x pre-pandemic,” BofA wrote, noting the sector is one of the few S&P sub-sectors trading below historical valuations despite brighter earnings growth prospects.

A steeper yield curve is said to have provided a silver lining. BofA explains that the 2/10-year UST yield spread is at its widest point since 2022, which the analysts link to improved net interest margins. 

“The average yield on bond books for our coverage universe is 3.3% as of Q3 2024, compared to 4.5-5% reinvestment yields,” the note explained. However, elevated interest rates could temper customer activity, particularly in loan demand and mortgages.

Looking ahead, BofA highlights that a rebound in loan growth is likely a 2025-2026 story, requiring stability in macroeconomic policies and regulatory clarity. 

They state that a stable Fed Funds rate is supportive of bank stock performance, though resurgent inflation could derail the recovery.

Among top picks, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC ) leads BofA’s recommendations due to its strong positioning in M&A and IPO activity. Capital markets players like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS ), and Citigroup (NYSE:C ) are also highlighted for their potential in a market rebound, alongside attractive regional banks such as US Bancorp (NYSE:USB ) and M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB ).

 

Source: Investing.com