Apple earnings: Barclays and Citi expect in-line Q3

Investing.com -- Apple’s upcoming Q3 earnings report is expected to align with or slightly exceed forecasts, but analysts at Barclays and Citi express caution about future guidance, particularly for the December quarter.

According to Barclays, Apple’s Q3 results will likely benefit from “late cycle iPhone 15 strength and better Services growth,” with iPhone shipments possibly exceeding the consensus estimate of 51 million units.

They anticipate Services revenue to grow around 13-14% year-over-year, slightly above consensus. However, the firm warns that the December quarter outlook could be at risk due to “mixed iPhone 16 data points and increased newsflow on build revisions.”

Barclays added that “sell-through remains flat/down compared to last year” and expects potential production cuts that could affect shipments into early 2025.

Citi also foresees challenges ahead, particularly with the delayed rollout of Apple’s new software features.

“We model in-line Sep-Q and Dec-Q total/iPhone sales 2%/3% below Street on delay of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL ) Intelligence software features to spring next year,” Citi stated.

However, the bank remains optimistic about 2025, predicting a robust upgrade cycle driven by the iPhone 17, saying, “We still believe in a strong +9% Y/Y iPhone 17 unit-driven upgrade cycle next year.”

Both Barclays and Citi emphasize Apple’s Services growth as a key driver. Citi highlighted that App Store revenue increased by 13% in the September quarter, in line with Apple’s expectation for double-digit growth.

Looking ahead, regulatory risks, delayed software features, and production challenges could weigh on Apple’s near-term performance.

“Our checks on iPhone 16 sell-through got a little better, but still show flat/down compared to last year,” Barclays cautioned. Citi added that “regulatory risks remain a key concern.”

Source: Investing.com