Akzo Nobel shares dip after Q3 miss, soft outlook, and higher leverage

Investing.com -- Shares of Akzo Nobel (AS:AKZO ) (OTC:AKZOY ) were down 4.7% on Wednesday after the company reported third-quarter results that fell slightly below market expectations. 

Analysts at JP Morgan in a note said that the modest miss was driven by foreign exchange headwinds, sluggish inventory reduction, and underperformance in certain segments, leading to some concerns about its year-end financial outlook.

The company’s third quarter revenue came in 3% below consensus, with adjusted EBITDA missing expectations by 2%. 

A stronger-than-expected currency impact weighed on sales, which declined 3% year-over-year, compared to the expected 2% drop. 

While volume increased by 1%, pricing and product mix remained flat, both aligning with expectations.

Akzo Nobel has maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance at approximately €1.5 billion, in line with consensus forecasts. 

However, with the Q3 miss, analysts see a possible downward revision to the company’s Q4 EBITDA, which could land between €320-330 million, slightly below the current consensus of €332 million.

Free cash flow for the quarter was another weak spot, falling 28% below expectations and down year-over-year, primarily due to higher-than-anticipated working capital levels, especially in inventory. 

As a result, Akzo now expects its 2024 year-end working capital to be around 15% of sales, above the previously targeted 14% or less. 

This adjustment has also affected the company’s leverage expectations, with net debt to reported EBITDA now projected at 2.7x by the end of 2024, compared to the earlier estimate of 2.3x.

In terms of segment performance, Decorative Paints was a bright spot, with adjusted EBITDA coming in 3% above expectations, reflecting better-than-expected pricing. 

However, Performance Coatings underwhelmed, missing forecasts by 7%, in part due to the same currency challenges that affected overall results. Additionally, reported EBIT fell significantly short of expectations—8% below company consensus—due to higher one-off expenses.

Akzo Nobel reaffirmed its full-year EBITDA target at the lower end of the initial range between €1.5 billion and €1.65 billion. 

However, with lingering inflationary pressures and slower-than-expected deleveraging, the company now forecasts leverage at 2.7x by year-end, raising concerns about its ability to meet previous financial goals.

J.P. Morgan note that while the broader valuation for 2024 and 2025 is not far off from historical averages, the stock could face challenges in the near term. 

Source: Investing.com