6,100-point crash not enough! Sensex may fall more if NDA's final tally drops below 300 seats

Sensex crashes over 6,100 points following disappointing early counting trends in the elections. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed stocks dropped significantly, erasing gains from the previous session.

Disappointed with early trends that showed ’s favourite Narendra Modi-led may win but with a lower-than-expected seat count, today fell over 6,100 points to record the biggest intraday in the last four years.

Sensex and Nifty not only erased all of the gains recorded in Monday's session as euphoria that predicted 350+ seats for looked far-fetched. The total capitalisation of all BSE-listed fell by nearly Rs 21.5 lakh crore in late morning.

But this may just be the beginning of a short-term downtrend in the market if NDA's seat tally turns out to be below the 300-level, analysts say.

"Following the exit poll results, the market had factored in around 350 seats for NDA and now if it falls below 300 then it would be a big disappointment for ," said Kranthi Bathini of .

Some analysts are also of the opinion that the market could be over-reacting to early trends.

"Due to physical counting under VVPAT, the process is slower this time around. I feel the market will once again get steady and high-beta stocks will be bought," said Dalal Street veteran Deven Choksey.

If the market falls further, high-flying PSU stocks as well as those being labelled as "Modi stocks" are likely to be among the worst hit in the avalanche.

Nifty PSU Bank index was the worst hit as it crashed over 11% with all stocks in the index seeing double-digit losses. Other PSU stocks like PFC, REC and BEL fell up to 20%.

Dalal Street's fear gauge India VIX jumped 40% to 29.79 to record its biggest single-day gain in 9 years. The flight to safety was visible as the 10-year bond yield spiked 10 bps to 7.04%.

With a 2% fall in the pre-election week, investors had baked in around 300-320 seats for NDA but exit polls set the benchmark higher only to be disappointed on Tuesday morning.

However, elections may not have an impact in the long run as investors train their focus back to fundamentals, growth outlook and company earnings.

In the worst case scenario, if the downtrend sustains in case NDA seat tally falls below the 300-mark, it could be the first bear market for new investors who got attracted to stocks post the Covid rally.

"New investors, especially those who entered the market after COVID-19, might not have experienced market corrections before. Since market movements are cyclical, errors during corrections can lead to substantial losses for inexperienced investors. Therefore, thorough research and effective risk management are crucial before making any investment decisions. Rushed or speculative investments could result in serious financial repercussions," said Vinnaayak Mehta, Founder of The Infinity Group.

Analysts are of the opinion that retail investors should not rush in to buy the dip in today's market and wait for the panic to settle down.

"But I do not think it is the time to short. Go long on the high beta trade - Adanis, PSUs. Just be cautious there. Try and build your portfolio on stocks which are giving you momentum like HDFC twins, SBI Life, UltraTech, ABFRL and Vodafone Idea," said market veteran Sanjiv Bhasin.
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Source: Stocks-Markets-Economic Times

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