Dollar slips from highs; euro under pressure after weak inflation data
The U.S. dollar slipped back from recent highs Tuesday, while benign regional inflation data hit the euro ahead of this week's policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.
At 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded largely unchanged at 102.915, reteating from the previous session’s two-month peak.
The index is still up 2.3% over the course of the last month, and well on course to end its three-month losing streak. Dollar edges back from highs
The US currency has been in demand in recent weeks as employment and inflation readings spurred bets on a slower pace of rate cuts by the Fed, after the central bank cut rates by a hefty 50 basis points in September and announced the start of an easing cycle.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller furthered this notion on Monday, calling for “more caution” on future rate cuts. Waller said that the central bank should only gradually cut rates in the coming months.
The US economic calendar is relatively quiet Tuesday, but there are more Fed speakers to listen to, including FOMC members Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic .
Traders were seen pricing in an 86.8% chance for a 25 basis point cut in November, and a 13.2% chance rates will remain unchanged, CME Fedwatch showed. Euro drifts lower ahead of ECB meeting
In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.2% lower to 1.0892, after the release of more regional inflation data pointed to further rate cuts by the European Central Bank , starting on Thursday.
French consumer prices fell more than initially expected in September, according to data released earlier Tuesday, with the headline harmonized annual consumer price index revised down to 1.4%, its lowest level since early 2021.
Spanish consumer prices also fell well below the ECB’s 2.0% target, while German wholesale prices fell by 1.6% in September compared with the same month last year, suggesting underlying price pressures in the eurozone’s largest economy are minimal.
The ECB has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate later this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.
“The euro is losing some ground ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and has now made a decisive break below 1.090,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “The rewidening in rate differentials with the USD is clearly prompting a shift in strategic EUR/USD positioning, and CFTC data showed net-longs have declined from 13.5% to 5.9% of open interest since early September.”
GBP/USD edged 0.1% higher to 1.3070, after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4% in August, from 4.1%, suggesting underlying strength in the labor market.
However, falls in average earnings data opened the path for a further cut in interest rates when the Bank of England next meets in November, providing Wednesday’s consumer inflation data doesn’t spring a significant upside surprise. Yuan under pressure
USD/CNY rose 0.4% to 7.1156, with the yuan under pressure amid uncertainty surrounding China’s plans to dole out fiscal stimulus, with the Ministry of Finance failing to provide key details on the planned measures - specifically their scale and timing.
Sentiment towards China was also dented by a string of weak economic readings. Data on Monday showed China’s trade balance shrank more than expected in September amid a sharp slowdown in export growth, while earlier readings showed a disinflationary trend remained in play.
USD/JPY fell 0.4% to 149.11, with the yen rebounding slightly amid after the pair threatened to break above the 150 resistance level
Source: Investing.com
