Asia FX weakens, dollar near 4-mth high as Trump trade persists

Most Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday, while the dollar traded near a four-month high as traders remained largely biased towards sectors expected to benefit from a second Donald Trump presidency. 

The Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen were among the worst-hit by this trade, while risk-driven Asian units were also dented by anticipation of key U.S. inflation data later this week.  Dollar near 4-mth peak as traders see higher rates under Trump

The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose slightly in Asian trade and remained close to a four-month high hit in the prior session.

The greenback has been on a tear since Trump’s election victory last week, given that any protectionist policies in trade and immigration are expected to be inflationary in the long term.

This is expected to keep interest rates relatively higher in the coming years, benefiting the dollar. Trump is also expected to cut taxes, which factor further into an inflationary outlook.

Focus this week is also on key U.S. consumer price index inflation data, due on Wednesday, for more cues on interest rates. Inflation is expected to have remained sticky in October.

A slew of Federal Reserve officials are also set to speak this week, amid some doubts over whether the central bank will cut rates further in December. Chinese yuan fragile, USDCNY at 3-mth high

The Chinese yuan weakened further on Tuesday, with the USDCNY pair rising 0.2% to a three-month high.

Chinese markets were battered by investors pulling out after Beijing’s latest round of fiscal measures largely underwhelmed. The National People’s Congress approved 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in fresh debt aimed at supporting local governments.

But a lack of targeted fiscal measures for improving consumption and supporting the property market was a point of contention for investors, especially as China faces increased economic pressure from a Trump administration. 

Still, analysts expect Beijing to outline more measures in the coming months. 

Broader Asian currencies were mostly fragile as the dollar firmed. The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair fell slightly, but remained close to recent three-month highs. Weakness in the yen also kept traders on guard over any potential government intervention.

The Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair fell 0.4%, taking limited support from data showing an improvement in Australian consumer sentiment. 

The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair rose 0.1%, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair rose 0.2%. 

The Indian rupee’s USDINR pair hovered well above 84 rupees and remained close to record highs. Indian consumer inflation data is due later on Tuesday.

Source: Investing.com