UBS cuts Brent 2025 forecast, still sees upside ahead

Crude prices have traded lower Friday, on course for a negative week, as demand concerns and a stronger US dollar weighed on investor sentiment. But UBS cuts its 2025 Brent forecast, but sees room to recover from current levels.

By 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the U.S. crude futures (WTI) dropped 1% to $68.03 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 0.9% to $71.88 a barrel.

Both contracts are on course for weekly losses of around 3%.

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.1 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels to the lowest since November 2022. 

The International Energy Agency also said earlier this week global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place.

The Swiss bank has cut its Brent crude price target to $80/bbl in 2025, down from $87/bbl at the end of March and June and $85/bbl at the end of September.

However, the bank’s analysts continue to believe that oil market participants are pricing in a too pessimistic outlook for 2025.

“Despite the re-election of Donald Trump and his pro-drilling pledge, we believe that it is not the person sitting in the White House that determines the US crude production path, but the prevailing spot price. With the US crude price starting to trade into the production curve, US crude production could be flat or even negative next year if current prices prevail,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated Nov. 14.

“Moreover, energy executives have indicated an ongoing focus on capital discipline.”

Tariffs remain a risk for oil demand growth in 2025, but further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures would likely offset the associated economic growth drags. 

“We see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year. With low positioning of financial investors due to their view of a strongly oversupplied market, we believe oil prices have room to recover from current levels,” UBS added.

 

Source: Investing.com