Why US stock market gains will continue – UBS

Investing.com -- U.S. equities are set to extend their gains, driven by robust earnings growth, durable economic growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence, according to UBS note. It expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 by December 2025.

Strong third-quarter earnings, holiday spending momentum, and a supportive labour market have bolstered confidence in U.S. stocks. UBS predicts 9% earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 in both 2024 and 2025, as corporate America benefits from resilient economy and easing monetary policy.

Even with the recent inflationary pressures, UBS exects further Fed rate cuts, which could boost consumer spending, corporate borrowing, and housing activity. The firm views the current macroeconomic environment as consistent with a "soft landing," where the economy avoids a sharp downturn.

The AI boom remains a key driver of optimism, with companies continuing to invest in technology and demand for AI applications showing no signs of slowing. UBS sees this as a catalyst for sustained revenue growth across sectors.

“While government policy uncertainty could widen the range of outcomes, we believe the fundamental backdrop still remains favorable for stocks,” analyst noted.

Though the valuations are high, UBS argues they are justified given the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and a favourable earnings outlook. Historically, equities have risen 18% on average in the year following the start of a Fed easing cycle, the note highlighted.

 

Source: Investing.com